Eredivisie

Eredivisie results 2026/2027

Every Eredivisie match played this season, newest first, with the xG each side created and the home, draw and away probabilities the model held before kickoff.

xG reading

All Went with the xG Went against the xG

Model record

Most likely outcome landed in 12 of 30 matches (40%). The probabilities implied about 15 (50%). Brier score 0.60 (reference 0.70; lower is better). How the model works →

Home
Draw
Away

What happened Most likely outcome Upset

Sunday, 20/09/2026

4 matches

16:45

NEC Nijmegen 1

Go Ahead Eagles 1

xG 1.04 – 2.31 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

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14:30

FC Twente 3

PSV Eindhoven 2

xG 2.40 – 1.02 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

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14:30

AZ Alkmaar 1

SC Telstar 0

xG 2.35 – 0.10 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
12:15

Feyenoord 5

FC Utrecht 0

xG 3.41 – 0.58 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Saturday, 19/09/2026

4 matches

21:00

Willem II Tilburg 0

Fortuna Sittard 1

xG 1.01 – 1.31 Level on xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→
20:00

AFC Ajax 2

Excelsior 2

xG 2.51 – 0.82 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

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18:45

Sparta Rotterdam 0

SC Heerenveen 4

xG 0.67 – 1.80 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

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16:30

ADO Den Haag 1

SC Cambuur 1

xG 2.10 – 0.61 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→

Friday, 18/09/2026

1 match

20:00

FC Groningen 3

PEC Zwolle 0

xG 1.39 – 0.43 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Tuesday, 15/09/2026

1 match

20:00

AFC Ajax 5

Willem II Tilburg 1

xG 3.79 – 1.58 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Sunday, 13/09/2026

4 matches

20:00

PSV Eindhoven 4

Sparta Rotterdam 1

xG 3.75 – 2.29 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
16:45

PEC Zwolle 0

Feyenoord 7

xG 0.19 – 3.40 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
14:30

SC Heerenveen 0

SC Telstar 0

xG 1.54 – 0.71 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→
12:15

Excelsior 1

FC Utrecht 2

xG 0.61 – 1.42 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

→

Saturday, 12/09/2026

4 matches

21:00

SC Cambuur 3

NEC Nijmegen 0

xG 3.12 – 0.93 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→
20:00

Fortuna Sittard 1

AFC Ajax 5

xG 0.71 – 4.13 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
18:45

Go Ahead Eagles 1

FC Groningen 1

xG 2.23 – 0.16 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→
16:30

FC Twente 2

ADO Den Haag 0

xG 2.81 – 0.54 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Friday, 11/09/2026

1 match

20:00

AZ Alkmaar 1

Willem II Tilburg 1

xG 2.48 – 0.93 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

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Wednesday, 09/09/2026

1 match

18:45

FC Twente 1

SC Telstar 0

xG 2.65 – 0.52 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Tuesday, 08/09/2026

2 matches

18:45

NEC Nijmegen 2

Excelsior 2

xG 1.36 – 1.81 Level on xG

Pre-match probabilities

→
14:00

FC Utrecht 3

Go Ahead Eagles 3

xG 2.47 – 1.79 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

→

Sunday, 06/09/2026

4 matches

16:45

ADO Den Haag 2

Fortuna Sittard 3

xG 0.48 – 0.55 Level on xG

Pre-match probabilities

→
14:30

SC Telstar 2

SC Cambuur 2

xG 2.12 – 0.98 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→
14:30

SC Heerenveen 2

AZ Alkmaar 3

xG 1.52 – 1.51 Level on xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
12:15

FC Groningen 2

FC Twente 2

xG 1.48 – 2.30 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

→

Saturday, 05/09/2026

3 matches

21:00

Willem II Tilburg 0

Excelsior 3

xG 0.86 – 1.60 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
20:00

AFC Ajax 1

PSV Eindhoven 3

xG 1.99 – 2.55 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
16:30

NEC Nijmegen 1

Feyenoord 3

xG 0.74 – 1.11 Level on xG

Pre-match probabilities

→

Friday, 04/09/2026

1 match

20:00

Sparta Rotterdam 2

PEC Zwolle 2

xG 2.23 – 1.07 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→

Sunday, 30/08/2026

5 matches

20:00

SC Cambuur 1

FC Twente 4

xG 0.47 – 1.76 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:45

SC Telstar 0

AFC Ajax 4

xG 1.13 – 2.13 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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14:30

Feyenoord 2

ADO Den Haag 2

xG 2.47 – 0.24 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
→
14:30

Willem II Tilburg 2

SC Heerenveen 2

xG 1.70 – 1.35 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
12:15

FC Utrecht 1

PSV Eindhoven 6

xG 0.30 – 3.58 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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Saturday, 29/08/2026

3 matches

21:00

PEC Zwolle 1

NEC Nijmegen 3

xG 1.98 – 1.98 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
18:45

AZ Alkmaar 5

Go Ahead Eagles 2

xG 2.39 – 1.82 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:30

Excelsior 2

Sparta Rotterdam 1

xG 1.21 – 0.97 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
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Friday, 28/08/2026

1 match

20:00

FC Groningen 2

Fortuna Sittard 3

xG 1.92 – 0.87 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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Sunday, 23/08/2026

3 matches

16:45

SC Cambuur 2

Feyenoord 5

xG 1.07 – 2.57 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
14:30

PSV Eindhoven 5

FC Groningen 1

xG 4.42 – 1.09 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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12:15

Go Ahead Eagles 3

ADO Den Haag 1

xG 1.01 – 0.99 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
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Saturday, 22/08/2026

4 matches

21:00

SC Heerenveen 0

PEC Zwolle 2

xG 0.85 – 1.55 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
20:00

NEC Nijmegen

Excelsior
Void
→
18:45

Sparta Rotterdam 3

FC Utrecht 3

xG 1.73 – 1.92 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:30

Fortuna Sittard 0

AZ Alkmaar 2

xG 0.44 – 4.35 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

Sunday, 16/08/2026

4 matches

16:45

AFC Ajax 2

SC Heerenveen 2

xG 2.00 – 1.36 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
→
14:30

FC Twente 3

PEC Zwolle 1

xG 2.62 – 0.80 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
14:30

Feyenoord 2

Go Ahead Eagles 2

xG 2.83 – 1.77 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
→
12:15

ADO Den Haag 1

FC Groningen 4

xG 1.01 – 3.20 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

xG is a model estimate of the chances each side created. "Went with the xG" means the side with more xG won; "Went against the xG" means the side with less xG won or the match was drawn across a gap of at least 0.5. The probabilities are the ones the model published before kickoff, rounded so the three add to 100; the outline marks what happened.