Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 16:30
13d 12h to kick-offADO Den Haag – PSV Eindhoven
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- ADO Den Haag
- 19%
- Draw
- 25%
- PSV Eindhoven
- 56%
| ADO Den Haag | Draw | PSV Eindhoven | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 5.21 | 4.05 | 1.78 |
- Total goals
- 3.21
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans PSV Eindhoven
56% PSV Eindhoven to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 9th
- PSV Eindhoven attack v ADO Den Haag defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 15th
- PSV Eindhoven defence v ADO Den Haag attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.50 vs -0.88
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.19 – 2.02
- ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 7 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | ADO Den Haag | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.90 · 18th | (better) 2.87 · 1st |
| xGA / match | 1.90 · 9th | (better) 1.37 · 6th |
| xGD / match | -1.00 · 16th | (better) +1.51 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 0.85 · 14th | (better) 2.18 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.88 | (better) +1.50 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- PSV Eindhoven clean sheet
- 28%
- PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals
- 62%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 36%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.6%
- 1:2
- 11.3%
- 0:2
- 8.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- ADO Den Haag sample
- 7 matches
- PSV Eindhoven sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · ADO Den Haag
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · PSV Eindhoven
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Warnings
- ADO Den Haag has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.