Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 20:00
Full timePSV Eindhoven 4:1 Sparta Rotterdam
PSV Eindhoven were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 67%. They won 4–1. The biggest difference was PSV Eindhoven's attack: 3.75 xG against 2.39 projected (+1.36). Sparta Rotterdam produced 2.29 xG against 1.08 projected (+1.21).
Goals
- 15' Milan Zonneveld Sparta Rotterdam · 1.00 xG chance 0–1
- 23' Sven Mijnans PSV Eindhoven · 0.20 xG chance 1–1
- 39' Kodai Sano PSV Eindhoven · 0.03 xG chance 2–1
- 74' Sven Mijnans PSV Eindhoven · 0.90 xG chance 3–1
- 88' Sven Mijnans PSV Eindhoven · 0.10 xG chance 4–1
The model against the result
- PSV Eindhoven
- 67% What happened
- Draw
- 20%
- Sparta Rotterdam
- 13%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
PSV Eindhoven produced 1.36 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 28
- 10
- On target
- 10
- 5
- Inside the box
- 17
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.23
- Open play xG
- 3.67
- 1.44
- Set-piece xG
- 0.27
- 0.89
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.87 for PSV Eindhoven and 2.29 for Sparta Rotterdam.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
38 shots · 6.27 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- PSV Eindhoven
- Sparta Rotterdam
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.97 xG created 1.05 xGA
1.71 xG created 1.68 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged1 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven at most 1 goal | 6.00 | +71.6% | Lost |
| Sparta Rotterdam to win | 13.00 | +66.8% | Lost |
| Draw | 8.00 | +63.9% | Lost |
| PSV Eindhoven not to score | 21.00 | +57.6% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13.00 | +39.7% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.50 | +36.8% | Lost |
| Sparta Rotterdam to score | 1.50 | +3.5% | Won |
| Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals | 3.50 | +3.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 66.7% | 80.7% | −14.1 pp | 1.50 |
| Draw | 20.5% | 11.9% | +8.6 pp | 4.88 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 12.8% | 7.3% | +5.5 pp | 7.79 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven to score | 92.5% | 95.4% | −2.9 pp | 1.08 |
| PSV Eindhoven not to score | 7.5% | 4.6% | +2.9 pp | 13.33 |
| Sparta Rotterdam to score | 69.0% | 62.5% | +6.5 pp | 1.45 |
| Sparta Rotterdam not to score | 31.0% | 37.5% | −6.5 pp | 3.23 |
| Both teams to score | 64.9% | 60.8% | +4.1 pp | 1.54 |
| Both teams not to score | 35.1% | 39.2% | −4.1 pp | 2.85 |
| PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals | 71.4% | 84.2% | −12.8 pp | 1.40 |
| PSV Eindhoven at most 1 goal | 28.6% | 15.8% | +12.8 pp | 3.50 |
| Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals | 29.5% | 26.9% | +2.6 pp | 3.39 |
| Sparta Rotterdam at most 1 goal | 70.5% | 73.1% | −2.6 pp | 1.42 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.3% | 92.6% | −3.3 pp | 1.12 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 10.7% | 7.4% | +3.3 pp | 9.31 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.6% | 79.2% | −9.6 pp | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.4% | 20.8% | +9.6 pp | 3.29 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- PSV Eindhoven sample
- 20 matches
- Sparta Rotterdam sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.