Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 20:00
Full timeAFC Ajax 1:3 PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was PSV Eindhoven's attack: 2.55 xG against 1.80 projected (+0.75). AFC Ajax produced 1.99 xG against 1.34 projected (+0.65).
Goals
- 5' Ricardo Pepi PSV Eindhoven · 0.77 xG chance 0–1
- 23' Tolu Arokodare AFC Ajax · 0.14 xG chance 1–1
- 45' Lutsharel Geertruida PSV Eindhoven · 0.04 xG chance 1–2
- 90' Esmir Bajraktarević PSV Eindhoven · 0.13 xG chance 1–3
The model against the result
- AFC Ajax
- 26%
- Draw
- 27%
- PSV Eindhoven
- 47% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
PSV Eindhoven produced 0.75 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 19
- 13
- On target
- 6
- 5
- Inside the box
- 12
- 11
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.19
- Open play xG
- 1.76
- 2.43
- Set-piece xG
- 0.33
- 0.04
- Penalties
- —
- —
AFC Ajax's shots add up to 2.09 xG and PSV Eindhoven's to 2.47; the published figures are 1.99 and 2.55.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
32 shots · 4.56 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- AFC Ajax
- PSV Eindhoven
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.88 xG created 0.97 xGA
- D 1.86 created, 1.61 conceded against SC Heerenveen
- W 1.83 created, 0.16 conceded against FC Groningen
- D 1.47 created, 0.96 conceded against FC Utrecht
- W 1.97 created, 0.59 conceded against PEC Zwolle
- D 2.00 created, 1.36 conceded against SC Heerenveen
- W 2.13 created, 1.13 conceded against SC Telstar
2.85 xG created 0.87 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged2 won5 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax not to score | 5.50 | +28.7% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | +26.9% | Lost |
| AFC Ajax at most 1 goal | 2.00 | +20.6% | Won |
| PSV Eindhoven to win | 2.45 | +15.0% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 8.00 | +13.8% | Lost |
| Both teams not to score | 3.40 | +11.8% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.75 | +1.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax | 26.1% | 35.4% | −9.3 pp | 3.83 |
| Draw | 26.9% | 25.5% | +1.4 pp | 3.71 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 46.9% | 39.1% | +7.9 pp | 2.13 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax to score | 76.6% | 82.8% | −6.2 pp | 1.31 |
| AFC Ajax not to score | 23.4% | 17.2% | +6.2 pp | 4.27 |
| PSV Eindhoven to score | 85.7% | 85.4% | +0.3 pp | 1.17 |
| PSV Eindhoven not to score | 14.3% | 14.6% | −0.3 pp | 7.00 |
| Both teams to score | 67.1% | 72.3% | −5.2 pp | 1.49 |
| Both teams not to score | 32.9% | 27.7% | +5.2 pp | 3.04 |
| AFC Ajax 2+ goals | 39.7% | 53.7% | −13.9 pp | 2.52 |
| AFC Ajax at most 1 goal | 60.3% | 46.3% | +13.9 pp | 1.66 |
| PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals | 55.5% | 57.7% | −2.1 pp | 1.80 |
| PSV Eindhoven at most 1 goal | 44.5% | 42.3% | +2.1 pp | 2.25 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.8% | 88.1% | −2.3 pp | 1.17 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14.2% | 11.9% | +2.3 pp | 7.03 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.7% | 71.8% | −9.2 pp | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.3% | 28.2% | +9.2 pp | 2.68 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- AFC Ajax sample
- 20 matches
- PSV Eindhoven sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 4 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.