Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 16:45
Full timeSC Telstar 0:4 AFC Ajax
AFC Ajax were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was AFC Ajax's attack: 2.13 xG against 1.87 projected (+0.26).
Goals
- 37' Davy Klaassen AFC Ajax · 0.34 xG chance 0–1
- 56' Steven Berghuis AFC Ajax · 0.62 xG chance 0–2
- 60' Tolu Arokodare AFC Ajax · 0.05 xG chance 0–3
- 78' Marcos Leonardo AFC Ajax · 0.52 xG chance 0–4
The model against the result
- SC Telstar
- 25%
- Draw
- 26%
- AFC Ajax
- 49% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
AFC Ajax produced 0.26 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 12
- On target
- 4
- 9
- Inside the box
- 9
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.21
- Open play xG
- 0.70
- 2.09
- Set-piece xG
- 0.45
- 0.37
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.13 for SC Telstar and 2.43 for AFC Ajax.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
23 shots · 3.61 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- SC Telstar
- AFC Ajax
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.67 xG created 1.64 xGA
- W 1.65 created, 1.09 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
- D 1.22 created, 2.11 conceded against NEC Nijmegen
- W 2.71 created, 0.85 conceded against Heracles Almelo
- W 1.40 created, 1.09 conceded against FC Volendam
- W 1.66 created, 2.15 conceded against NEC Nijmegen
- L 1.40 created, 2.55 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
1.68 xG created 1.08 xGA
- D 0.95 created, 1.80 conceded against PSV Eindhoven
- D 1.86 created, 1.61 conceded against SC Heerenveen
- W 1.83 created, 0.16 conceded against FC Groningen
- D 1.47 created, 0.96 conceded against FC Utrecht
- W 1.97 created, 0.59 conceded against PEC Zwolle
- D 2.00 created, 1.36 conceded against SC Heerenveen
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Telstar to win | 6.00 | +25.7% | Lost |
| Draw | 5.00 | +18.4% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | +6.6% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | +2.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Telstar | 25.1% | 15.7% | +9.4 pp | 3.98 |
| Draw | 26.3% | 18.9% | +7.4 pp | 3.80 |
| AFC Ajax | 48.5% | 65.4% | −16.8 pp | 2.06 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 68.1% | 62.5% | +5.6 pp | 1.47 |
| Both teams not to score | 31.9% | 37.5% | −5.6 pp | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.8% | 88.1% | −1.3 pp | 1.15 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13.2% | 11.9% | +1.3 pp | 7.56 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.5% | 71.8% | −7.4 pp | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.5% | 28.2% | +7.4 pp | 2.81 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SC Telstar sample
- 20 matches
- AFC Ajax sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.