ADO Den Haag 2:3 Fortuna Sittard: xG & match report · Eredivisie

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 16:45

Full time

Match report · Eredivisie

ADO Den Haag Home 0.48 xG · 11 shots

Fortuna Sittard Away 0.55 xG · 8 shots

23 The chances were evenly matched

ADO Den Haag were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. Fortuna Sittard won 3–2. The biggest difference was ADO Den Haag's attack: 0.48 xG against 1.70 projected (−1.22). Fortuna Sittard produced 0.55 xG against 1.35 projected (−0.80).

Goals

29' Mohamed Ihattaren Fortuna Sittard · 0.04 xG chance 0–1
34' Lequincio Zeefuik Fortuna Sittard · 0.20 xG chance 0–2
59' Yannick Eduardo ADO Den Haag · 0.08 xG chance 1–2
62' Mohamed Ihattaren Fortuna Sittard · 0.02 xG chance 1–3
90' Jesse Bal ADO Den Haag · 0.11 xG chance 2–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

ADO Den Haag: 44%
Draw: 28%
Fortuna Sittard: 28% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

ADO Den Haag 1.70 0.48 -1.22

Fortuna Sittard 1.35 0.55 -0.80

ADO Den Haag produced 1.22 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

ADO Den Haag Fortuna Sittard

Shots: 11; 8
On target: 3; 5
Inside the box: 6; 5
xG per shot: 0.04; 0.07
Open play xG: 0.34; 0.52
Set-piece xG: 0.15; 0.03
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.49 for ADO Den Haag.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

19 shots · 1.04 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

ADO Den Haag
Fortuna Sittard
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

ADO Den Haag

0.80 xG created 2.34 xGA

L 0.95 created, 2.67 conceded against AZ Alkmaar
L 1.01 created, 3.20 conceded against FC Groningen
L 0.99 created, 1.01 conceded against Go Ahead Eagles
D 0.24 created, 2.47 conceded against Feyenoord

Fortuna Sittard

0.91 xG created 2.66 xGA

L 0.77 created, 2.50 conceded against Feyenoord
L 0.48 created, 2.09 conceded against FC Utrecht
D 0.98 created, 2.56 conceded against PSV Eindhoven
W 1.91 created, 2.51 conceded against SC Cambuur
L 0.44 created, 4.35 conceded against AZ Alkmaar
W 0.87 created, 1.92 conceded against FC Groningen

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost

Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on ADO Den Haag against Fortuna Sittard before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	4.00	+11.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag	44.3%	48.5%	−4.2 pp	2.26
Draw	27.8%	23.7%	+4.1 pp	3.60
Fortuna Sittard	27.9%	27.8%	+0.1 pp	3.58

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	66.1%	64.5%	+1.6 pp	1.51
Both teams not to score	33.9%	35.5%	−1.6 pp	2.95
Over 1.5 goals	84.6%	82.8%	+1.8 pp	1.18
Under 1.5 goals	15.4%	17.2%	−1.8 pp	6.51
Over 2.5 goals	60.6%	62.5%	−1.9 pp	1.65
Under 2.5 goals	39.4%	37.5%	+1.9 pp	2.54

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
ADO Den Haag sample: 4 matches
Fortuna Sittard sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Warnings

ADO Den Haag has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.