Feyenoord 2:2 ADO Den Haag: xG & match report · Eredivisie

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 14:30

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Match report · Eredivisie

Feyenoord Home 2.47 xG · 33 shots

ADO Den Haag Away 0.24 xG · 8 shots

22 Feyenoord had the better chances, but it finished level

Feyenoord were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 57%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was ADO Den Haag's attack: 0.24 xG against 1.09 projected (−0.85). Feyenoord produced 2.47 xG against 1.98 projected (+0.49).

Goals

12' Nigel Thomas ADO Den Haag · 0.04 xG chance 0–1
53' Sekou Sylla ADO Den Haag · 0.04 xG chance 0–2
62' Ayase Ueda Feyenoord · 0.14 xG chance 1–2
72' Anis Hadj Moussa Feyenoord · 0.11 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Feyenoord: 57%
Draw: 25% What happened
ADO Den Haag: 18%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Feyenoord 1.98 2.47 +0.49

ADO Den Haag 1.09 0.24 -0.85

ADO Den Haag produced 0.85 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Feyenoord ADO Den Haag

Shots: 33; 8
On target: 12; 3
Inside the box: 17; 4
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.03
Open play xG: 1.55; 0.19
Set-piece xG: 0.94; 0.04
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.47 for Feyenoord and 0.24 for ADO Den Haag.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

41 shots · 2.72 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Feyenoord
ADO Den Haag
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Feyenoord

2.71 xG created 1.15 xGA

W 1.64 created, 1.46 conceded against FC Groningen
W 2.50 created, 0.77 conceded against Fortuna Sittard
W 3.21 created, 0.80 conceded against PEC Zwolle
W 3.53 created, 1.01 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
D 2.83 created, 1.77 conceded against Go Ahead Eagles
W 2.57 created, 1.07 conceded against SC Cambuur

ADO Den Haag

0.98 xG created 2.29 xGA

L 0.95 created, 2.67 conceded against AZ Alkmaar
L 1.01 created, 3.20 conceded against FC Groningen
L 0.99 created, 1.01 conceded against Go Ahead Eagles

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged4 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Feyenoord against ADO Den Haag before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
ADO Den Haag to win	15.00	+164.0%	Lost
Feyenoord not to score	19.00	+98.7%	Lost
Draw	7.50	+87.4%	Won
Feyenoord at most 1 goal	5.50	+75.4%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	3.60	+39.6%	Lost
ADO Den Haag 2+ goals	4.33	+35.2%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	8.00	+20.8%	Lost
ADO Den Haag to score	1.67	+20.1%	Won
Both teams to score	1.75	+13.0%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Feyenoord	57.4%	80.9%	−23.5 pp	1.74
Draw	25.0%	12.7%	+12.2 pp	4.00
ADO Den Haag	17.6%	6.4%	+11.2 pp	5.68

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Feyenoord to score	88.3%	94.9%	−6.6 pp	1.13
Feyenoord not to score	11.7%	5.1%	+6.6 pp	8.55
ADO Den Haag to score	69.5%	55.7%	+13.8 pp	1.44
ADO Den Haag not to score	30.5%	44.3%	−13.8 pp	3.28
Both teams to score	62.8%	53.3%	+9.5 pp	1.59
Both teams not to score	37.2%	46.7%	−9.5 pp	2.69
Feyenoord 2+ goals	61.0%	82.8%	−21.8 pp	1.64
Feyenoord at most 1 goal	39.0%	17.2%	+21.8 pp	2.57
ADO Den Haag 2+ goals	30.0%	21.7%	+8.4 pp	3.33
ADO Den Haag at most 1 goal	70.0%	78.3%	−8.4 pp	1.43
Over 1.5 goals	84.9%	88.4%	−3.5 pp	1.18
Under 1.5 goals	15.1%	11.6%	+3.5 pp	6.62
Over 2.5 goals	61.2%	74.2%	−13.0 pp	1.63
Under 2.5 goals	38.8%	25.8%	+13.0 pp	2.58

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Feyenoord sample: 20 matches
ADO Den Haag sample: 3 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Warnings

ADO Den Haag has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.