Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 14:30
Full timeFC Twente 3:2 PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. FC Twente won 3–2. The biggest difference was FC Twente's attack: 2.40 xG against 1.56 projected (+0.84). PSV Eindhoven produced 1.02 xG against 1.61 projected (−0.59).
Goals
- 14' Younes Taha FC Twente · 0.19 xG chance 1–0
- 26' Guus Til PSV Eindhoven · 0.13 xG chance 1–1
- 29' Guus Til PSV Eindhoven · 0.07 xG chance 1–2
- 79' Wout Weghorst FC Twente · 0.38 xG chance 2–2
- 83' Daouda Weidmann FC Twente · 0.49 xG chance 3–2
The model against the result
- FC Twente
- 35% What happened
- Draw
- 28%
- PSV Eindhoven
- 37%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC Twente produced 0.84 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 20
- 11
- On target
- 5
- 4
- Inside the box
- 14
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 1.71
- 0.71
- Set-piece xG
- 0.67
- 0.14
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.36 for FC Twente and 0.81 for PSV Eindhoven.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
31 shots · 3.23 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FC Twente
- PSV Eindhoven
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.26 xG created 0.70 xGA
- L 1.41 created, 0.40 conceded against SC Heerenveen
- W 2.62 created, 0.80 conceded against PEC Zwolle
- W 1.76 created, 0.47 conceded against SC Cambuur
- D 2.30 created, 1.48 conceded against FC Groningen
- W 2.65 created, 0.52 conceded against SC Telstar
- W 2.81 created, 0.54 conceded against ADO Den Haag
3.18 xG created 1.19 xGA
- D 2.56 created, 0.98 conceded against Fortuna Sittard
- W 2.24 created, 0.51 conceded against Excelsior
- W 4.42 created, 1.09 conceded against FC Groningen
- W 3.58 created, 0.30 conceded against FC Utrecht
- W 2.55 created, 1.99 conceded against AFC Ajax
- W 3.75 created, 2.29 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
9 opportunities flagged1 won8 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.60 | +31.3% | Lost |
| PSV Eindhoven at most 1 goal | 2.50 | +26.4% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 9.00 | +23.3% | Lost |
| PSV Eindhoven not to score | 7.00 | +22.6% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.00 | +10.3% | Lost |
| FC Twente not to score | 6.00 | +9.5% | Lost |
| FC Twente at most 1 goal | 2.10 | +9.4% | Lost |
| Both teams not to score | 3.50 | +8.9% | Lost |
| FC Twente to win | 2.88 | +1.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente | 35.2% | 33.1% | +2.1 pp | 2.84 |
| Draw | 27.6% | 23.8% | +3.8 pp | 3.63 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 37.2% | 43.2% | −6.0 pp | 2.69 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente to score | 81.8% | 84.2% | −2.5 pp | 1.22 |
| FC Twente not to score | 18.2% | 15.8% | +2.5 pp | 5.48 |
| PSV Eindhoven to score | 82.5% | 86.4% | −3.9 pp | 1.21 |
| PSV Eindhoven not to score | 17.5% | 13.6% | +3.9 pp | 5.71 |
| Both teams to score | 68.9% | 73.1% | −4.2 pp | 1.45 |
| Both teams not to score | 31.1% | 26.9% | +4.2 pp | 3.21 |
| FC Twente 2+ goals | 47.9% | 55.7% | −7.8 pp | 2.09 |
| FC Twente at most 1 goal | 52.1% | 44.3% | +7.8 pp | 1.92 |
| PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals | 49.4% | 62.5% | −13.1 pp | 2.02 |
| PSV Eindhoven at most 1 goal | 50.6% | 37.5% | +13.1 pp | 1.98 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.3% | 89.4% | −3.1 pp | 1.16 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13.7% | 10.6% | +3.1 pp | 7.30 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.5% | 73.7% | −10.1 pp | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.5% | 26.3% | +10.1 pp | 2.74 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Twente sample
- 20 matches
- PSV Eindhoven sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.