FC Twente 2:0 ADO Den Haag: xG & match report · Eredivisie

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 16:30

Full time

Match report · Eredivisie

FC Twente Home 2.81 xG · 24 shots

ADO Den Haag Away 0.54 xG · 10 shots

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

FC Twente were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 64%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was FC Twente's attack: 2.81 xG against 2.05 projected (+0.76). ADO Den Haag produced 0.54 xG against 0.91 projected (−0.37).

Goals

61' Wout Weghorst (pen.) FC Twente · 0.82 xG chance 1–0
74' Robin Pröpper FC Twente · 0.19 xG chance 2–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Twente: 64% What happened
Draw: 23%
ADO Den Haag: 13%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Twente 2.05 2.81 +0.76

ADO Den Haag 0.91 0.54 -0.37

FC Twente produced 0.76 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Twente ADO Den Haag

Shots: 24; 10
On target: 12; 5
Inside the box: 18; 4
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.05
Open play xG: 1.69; 0.46
Set-piece xG: 0.33; 0.08
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.02 for FC Twente.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

34 shots · 3.38 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC Twente
ADO Den Haag
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Twente

2.03 xG created 1.03 xGA

L 1.41 created, 2.49 conceded against PSV Eindhoven
L 1.41 created, 0.40 conceded against SC Heerenveen
W 2.62 created, 0.80 conceded against PEC Zwolle
W 1.76 created, 0.47 conceded against SC Cambuur
D 2.30 created, 1.48 conceded against FC Groningen
W 2.65 created, 0.52 conceded against SC Telstar

ADO Den Haag

0.73 xG created 1.98 xGA

L 0.95 created, 2.67 conceded against AZ Alkmaar
L 1.01 created, 3.20 conceded against FC Groningen
L 0.99 created, 1.01 conceded against Go Ahead Eagles
D 0.24 created, 2.47 conceded against Feyenoord
L 0.48 created, 0.55 conceded against Fortuna Sittard

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Twente against ADO Den Haag before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	7.00	+63.6%	Lost
FC Twente not to score	15.00	+63.5%	Lost
FC Twente at most 1 goal	4.00	+48.3%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	3.50	+45.3%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	8.00	+34.8%	Lost
ADO Den Haag to win	10.00	+29.5%	Lost
ADO Den Haag to score	1.62	+1.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Twente	63.7%	77.1%	−13.4 pp	1.57
Draw	23.4%	13.5%	+9.9 pp	4.28
ADO Den Haag	13.0%	9.4%	+3.5 pp	7.72

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Twente to score	89.1%	93.6%	−4.5 pp	1.12
FC Twente not to score	10.9%	6.4%	+4.5 pp	9.17
ADO Den Haag to score	62.7%	57.7%	+5.0 pp	1.60
ADO Den Haag not to score	37.3%	42.3%	−5.0 pp	2.68
Both teams to score	57.2%	54.7%	+2.5 pp	1.75
Both teams not to score	42.8%	45.3%	−2.5 pp	2.34
FC Twente 2+ goals	62.9%	76.6%	−13.7 pp	1.59
FC Twente at most 1 goal	37.1%	23.4%	+13.7 pp	2.70
ADO Den Haag 2+ goals	22.7%	23.4%	−0.7 pp	4.41
ADO Den Haag at most 1 goal	77.3%	76.6%	+0.7 pp	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	83.2%	88.1%	−4.9 pp	1.20
Under 1.5 goals	16.8%	11.9%	+4.9 pp	5.94
Over 2.5 goals	58.5%	72.9%	−14.4 pp	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	41.5%	27.1%	+14.4 pp	2.41

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Twente sample: 20 matches
ADO Den Haag sample: 5 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 hour before kick-off

Warnings

ADO Den Haag has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.