Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 20:00
Full timeSC Cambuur 1:4 FC Twente
FC Twente were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 55%. They won 4–1. The biggest difference was SC Cambuur's attack: 0.47 xG against 1.24 projected (−0.77).
Goals
- 22' Ruud Nijstad FC Twente · 0.03 xG chance 0–1
- 26' Wout Weghorst FC Twente · 0.10 xG chance 0–2
- 47' Marko Pjaca FC Twente · 0.23 xG chance 0–3
- 82' Younes Taha FC Twente · 0.23 xG chance 0–4
- 88' Ilyes Hamache SC Cambuur · 0.06 xG chance 1–4
The model against the result
- SC Cambuur
- 20%
- Draw
- 25%
- FC Twente
- 55% What happened
Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
SC Cambuur produced 0.77 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 10
- 23
- On target
- 3
- 10
- Inside the box
- 5
- 13
- xG per shot
- 0.05
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 0.39
- 1.42
- Set-piece xG
- 0.08
- 0.35
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.76 for FC Twente.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
33 shots · 2.24 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- SC Cambuur
- FC Twente
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.43 xG created 2.45 xGA
1.85 xG created 1.30 xGA
- D 1.28 created, 1.86 conceded against NEC Nijmegen
- D 0.46 created, 1.39 conceded against AZ Alkmaar
- W 3.92 created, 0.86 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
- L 1.41 created, 2.49 conceded against PSV Eindhoven
- L 1.41 created, 0.40 conceded against SC Heerenveen
- W 2.62 created, 0.80 conceded against PEC Zwolle
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Cambuur to win | 7.00 | +53.4% | Lost |
| Draw | 6.00 | +43.6% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | +13.8% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Cambuur | 20.5% | 13.5% | +7.0 pp | 4.89 |
| Draw | 25.0% | 15.7% | +9.2 pp | 4.00 |
| FC Twente | 54.6% | 70.8% | −16.2 pp | 1.83 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 66.9% | 57.7% | +9.3 pp | 1.49 |
| Both teams not to score | 33.1% | 42.3% | −9.3 pp | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.1% | 86.4% | +0.7 pp | 1.15 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12.9% | 13.6% | −0.7 pp | 7.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.1% | 69.4% | −4.3 pp | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.9% | 30.6% | +4.3 pp | 2.87 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SC Cambuur sample
- 3 matches
- FC Twente sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- SC Cambuur has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.