ADO Den Haag 1:1 SC Cambuur: xG & match report · Eredivisie

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 16:30

Full time

Match report · Eredivisie

ADO Den Haag Home 2.10 xG · 18 shots

SC Cambuur Away 0.61 xG · 8 shots

11 ADO Den Haag had the better chances, but it finished level

SC Cambuur were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was SC Cambuur's attack: 0.61 xG against 1.57 projected (−0.96). ADO Den Haag produced 2.10 xG against 1.40 projected (+0.70).

Goals

44' Fabian Kvam SC Cambuur · 0.05 xG chance 0–1
74' Donát Bárány ADO Den Haag · 0.20 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

ADO Den Haag: 32%
Draw: 29% What happened
SC Cambuur: 40%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

ADO Den Haag 1.40 2.10 +0.70

SC Cambuur 1.57 0.61 -0.96

SC Cambuur produced 0.96 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

ADO Den Haag SC Cambuur

Shots: 18; 8
On target: 6; 3
Inside the box: 14; 6
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.06
Open play xG: 1.20; 0.47
Set-piece xG: 0.82; 0.00
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.08 for ADO Den Haag and 0.48 for SC Cambuur.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

26 shots · 2.49 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

ADO Den Haag
SC Cambuur
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

ADO Den Haag

0.70 xG created 2.12 xGA

L 0.95 created, 2.67 conceded against AZ Alkmaar
L 1.01 created, 3.20 conceded against FC Groningen
L 0.99 created, 1.01 conceded against Go Ahead Eagles
D 0.24 created, 2.47 conceded against Feyenoord
L 0.48 created, 0.55 conceded against Fortuna Sittard
L 0.54 created, 2.81 conceded against FC Twente

SC Cambuur

1.48 xG created 2.03 xGA

L 0.72 created, 2.87 conceded against Excelsior
L 2.51 created, 1.91 conceded against Fortuna Sittard
L 1.07 created, 2.57 conceded against Feyenoord
L 0.47 created, 1.76 conceded against FC Twente
D 0.98 created, 2.12 conceded against SC Telstar
W 3.12 created, 0.93 conceded against NEC Nijmegen

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged4 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on ADO Den Haag against SC Cambuur before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
SC Cambuur to win	3.90	+54.4%	Lost
ADO Den Haag not to score	6.50	+41.5%	Lost
ADO Den Haag at most 1 goal	2.25	+30.3%	Won
SC Cambuur 2+ goals	2.38	+14.1%	Lost
Draw	3.90	+11.8%	Won
SC Cambuur to score	1.29	+5.2%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.50	+2.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag	31.8%	51.3%	−19.6 pp	3.15
Draw	28.7%	24.3%	+4.3 pp	3.49
SC Cambuur	39.6%	24.3%	+15.2 pp	2.53

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
ADO Den Haag to score	78.2%	85.4%	−7.2 pp	1.28
ADO Den Haag not to score	21.8%	14.6%	+7.2 pp	4.59
SC Cambuur to score	81.8%	73.1%	+8.7 pp	1.22
SC Cambuur not to score	18.2%	26.9%	−8.7 pp	5.50
Both teams to score	65.6%	62.5%	+3.1 pp	1.52
Both teams not to score	34.4%	37.5%	−3.1 pp	2.91
ADO Den Haag 2+ goals	42.1%	58.9%	−16.8 pp	2.38
ADO Den Haag at most 1 goal	57.9%	41.1%	+16.8 pp	1.73
SC Cambuur 2+ goals	48.0%	39.2%	+8.8 pp	2.08
SC Cambuur at most 1 goal	52.0%	60.8%	−8.8 pp	1.92
Over 1.5 goals	83.7%	82.8%	+0.9 pp	1.19
Under 1.5 goals	16.3%	17.2%	−0.9 pp	6.14
Over 2.5 goals	58.9%	62.5%	−3.6 pp	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	41.1%	37.5%	+3.6 pp	2.43

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 2 warnings

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
ADO Den Haag sample: 6 matches
SC Cambuur sample: 6 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Warnings

ADO Den Haag has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
SC Cambuur has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.