SC Cambuur 3:0 NEC Nijmegen: xG & match report · Eredivisie

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 21:00

Full time

Match report · Eredivisie

SC Cambuur Home 3.12 xG · 16 shots

NEC Nijmegen Away 0.93 xG · 10 shots

30 The scoreline reflected the chances

NEC Nijmegen were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. SC Cambuur won 3–0. The biggest difference was SC Cambuur's attack: 3.12 xG against 1.31 projected (+1.81). NEC Nijmegen produced 0.93 xG against 1.92 projected (−0.99).

Goals

21' Ilyes Hamache SC Cambuur · 0.85 xG chance 1–0
54' Ilyes Hamache SC Cambuur · 0.67 xG chance 2–0
90' Iwan Henstra SC Cambuur · 0.03 xG chance 3–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

SC Cambuur: 24% What happened
Draw: 26%
NEC Nijmegen: 51%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

SC Cambuur 1.31 3.12 +1.81

NEC Nijmegen 1.92 0.93 -0.99

SC Cambuur produced 1.81 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

SC Cambuur NEC Nijmegen

Shots: 16; 10
On target: 8; 1
Inside the box: 11; 5
xG per shot: 0.20; 0.09
Open play xG: 2.45; 0.77
Set-piece xG: 0.78; 0.15
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.20 for SC Cambuur and 0.93 for NEC Nijmegen.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

26 shots · 4.15 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

SC Cambuur
NEC Nijmegen
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

SC Cambuur

1.15 xG created 2.25 xGA

L 0.72 created, 2.87 conceded against Excelsior
L 2.51 created, 1.91 conceded against Fortuna Sittard
L 1.07 created, 2.57 conceded against Feyenoord
L 0.47 created, 1.76 conceded against FC Twente
D 0.98 created, 2.12 conceded against SC Telstar

NEC Nijmegen

2.28 xG created 1.39 xGA

W 4.44 created, 0.32 conceded against Go Ahead Eagles
L 2.15 created, 1.66 conceded against SC Telstar
W 2.99 created, 1.43 conceded against Willem II Tilburg
W 1.98 created, 1.98 conceded against PEC Zwolle
L 0.74 created, 1.11 conceded against Feyenoord
D 1.36 created, 1.81 conceded against Excelsior

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged3 won3 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on SC Cambuur against NEC Nijmegen before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	4.75	+22.8%	Lost
NEC Nijmegen at most 1 goal	2.63	+7.3%	Won
SC Cambuur to win	4.50	+6.1%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.88	+1.8%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.50	+1.4%	Lost
NEC Nijmegen not to score	8.00	+0.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SC Cambuur	23.6%	21.1%	+2.4 pp	4.24
Draw	25.8%	20.0%	+5.8 pp	3.87
NEC Nijmegen	50.6%	58.9%	−8.3 pp	1.98

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SC Cambuur to score	75.8%	72.3%	+3.4 pp	1.32
SC Cambuur not to score	24.2%	27.7%	−3.4 pp	4.13
NEC Nijmegen to score	87.4%	88.1%	−0.7 pp	1.14
NEC Nijmegen not to score	12.6%	11.9%	+0.7 pp	7.94
Both teams to score	67.6%	62.5%	+5.1 pp	1.48
Both teams not to score	32.4%	37.5%	−5.1 pp	3.09
SC Cambuur 2+ goals	38.6%	37.5%	+1.1 pp	2.59
SC Cambuur at most 1 goal	61.4%	62.5%	−1.1 pp	1.63
NEC Nijmegen 2+ goals	59.1%	64.5%	−5.4 pp	1.69
NEC Nijmegen at most 1 goal	40.9%	35.5%	+5.4 pp	2.45
Over 1.5 goals	86.8%	85.4%	+1.4 pp	1.15
Under 1.5 goals	13.2%	14.6%	−1.4 pp	7.57
Over 2.5 goals	64.6%	67.3%	−2.7 pp	1.55
Under 2.5 goals	35.4%	32.7%	+2.7 pp	2.82

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
SC Cambuur sample: 5 matches
NEC Nijmegen sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Warnings

SC Cambuur has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.