Tuesday, 08/09/2026 at 18:45
Full timeNEC Nijmegen 2:2 Excelsior
NEC Nijmegen were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 50%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Excelsior's attack: 1.81 xG against 1.17 projected (+0.64). NEC Nijmegen produced 1.36 xG against 1.76 projected (−0.40).
Goals
- 11' Adam Tahaui NEC Nijmegen · 0.06 xG chance 1–0
- 43' David Garden Excelsior · 0.28 xG chance 1–1
- 73' Valentin Sulzbacher Excelsior · 0.17 xG chance 1–2
- 90' Noé Lebreton NEC Nijmegen · 0.09 xG chance 2–2
The model against the result
- NEC Nijmegen
- 50%
- Draw
- 27% What happened
- Excelsior
- 22%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Excelsior produced 0.64 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 14
- On target
- 3
- 5
- Inside the box
- 8
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.13
- Open play xG
- 1.37
- 1.79
- Set-piece xG
- —
- —
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.36 for NEC Nijmegen and 1.81 for Excelsior.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
25 shots · 3.16 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- NEC Nijmegen
- Excelsior
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.23 xG created 1.34 xGA
- L 1.08 created, 1.56 conceded against FC Groningen
- W 4.44 created, 0.32 conceded against Go Ahead Eagles
- L 2.15 created, 1.66 conceded against SC Telstar
- W 2.99 created, 1.43 conceded against Willem II Tilburg
- W 1.98 created, 1.98 conceded against PEC Zwolle
- L 0.74 created, 1.11 conceded against Feyenoord
1.25 xG created 1.17 xGA
- D 0.38 created, 0.46 conceded against FC Volendam
- W 0.95 created, 1.76 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
- W 2.87 created, 0.72 conceded against SC Cambuur
- L 0.51 created, 2.24 conceded against PSV Eindhoven
- W 1.21 created, 0.97 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
- W 1.60 created, 0.86 conceded against Willem II Tilburg
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.70 | +14.2% | Lost |
| Excelsior to win | 5.00 | +12.4% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.10 | +12.2% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 6.00 | +3.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | 50.2% | 58.2% | −8.1 pp | 1.99 |
| Draw | 27.4% | 22.9% | +4.4 pp | 3.65 |
| Excelsior | 22.5% | 18.8% | +3.7 pp | 4.45 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 62.5% | 62.5% | +0.0 pp | 1.60 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.5% | 37.5% | −0.0 pp | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.8% | 84.2% | −1.4 pp | 1.21 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17.2% | 15.8% | +1.4 pp | 5.82 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.7% | 65.2% | −7.5 pp | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.3% | 34.8% | +7.5 pp | 2.36 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NEC Nijmegen sample
- 20 matches
- Excelsior sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 8 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.