Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 12:15
21d 13h to kick-offFortuna Sittard – Excelsior
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Fortuna Sittard
- 29%
- Draw
- 29%
- Excelsior
- 41%
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.39 | 3.40 | 2.43 |
- Total goals
- 2.81
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Excelsior
41% Excelsior to win
- Attack
- 14th vs 17th
- Excelsior attack v Fortuna Sittard defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 17th
- Excelsior defence v Fortuna Sittard attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.47 vs -1.44
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.28 – 1.52
- Fortuna Sittard v Excelsior
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Fortuna Sittard | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.97 · 16th | (better) 1.35 · 12th |
| xGA / match | 2.42 · 18th | (better) 1.44 · 7th |
| xGD / match | -1.46 · 18th | (better) -0.09 · 7th |
| xPts / match | 0.72 · 18th | (better) 1.31 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.43 | (better) -0.47 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Excelsior clean sheet
- 25%
- Excelsior 2+ goals
- 46%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score: no
- 38%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.6%
- 1:2
- 10.4%
- 2:1
- 8.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Fortuna Sittard sample
- 20 matches
- Excelsior sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Fortuna Sittard
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Excelsior
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.