Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 12:15
Full timeExcelsior 1:2 FC Utrecht
Excelsior were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. FC Utrecht won 2–1. The biggest difference was Excelsior's attack: 0.61 xG against 1.70 projected (−1.09).
Goals
- 36' Artem Stepanov FC Utrecht · 0.66 xG chance 0–1
- 77' Aymen Sliti Excelsior · 0.14 xG chance 1–1
- 90' Dani De Wit FC Utrecht · 0.10 xG chance 1–2
The model against the result
- Excelsior
- 43%
- Draw
- 28%
- FC Utrecht
- 29% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Excelsior produced 1.09 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 10
- 12
- On target
- 4
- 6
- Inside the box
- 8
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.12
- Open play xG
- 0.44
- 1.26
- Set-piece xG
- 0.17
- 0.14
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.42 for FC Utrecht.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
22 shots · 2.01 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Excelsior
- FC Utrecht
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.49 xG created 1.32 xGA
- W 0.95 created, 1.76 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
- W 2.87 created, 0.72 conceded against SC Cambuur
- L 0.51 created, 2.24 conceded against PSV Eindhoven
- W 1.21 created, 0.97 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
- W 1.60 created, 0.86 conceded against Willem II Tilburg
- D 1.81 created, 1.36 conceded against NEC Nijmegen
1.47 xG created 2.04 xGA
- D 0.96 created, 1.47 conceded against AFC Ajax
- L 2.27 created, 1.55 conceded against FC Groningen
- L 0.91 created, 2.10 conceded against AZ Alkmaar
- D 1.92 created, 1.73 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
- L 0.30 created, 3.58 conceded against PSV Eindhoven
- D 2.47 created, 1.79 conceded against Go Ahead Eagles
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.90 | +7.8% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | +1.0% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 43.3% | 46.4% | −3.1 pp | 2.31 |
| Draw | 27.6% | 24.4% | +3.3 pp | 3.62 |
| FC Utrecht | 29.1% | 29.3% | −0.2 pp | 3.44 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior to score | 84.3% | 81.1% | +3.2 pp | 1.19 |
| Excelsior not to score | 15.7% | 18.9% | −3.2 pp | 6.37 |
| FC Utrecht to score | 78.1% | 75.0% | +3.1 pp | 1.28 |
| FC Utrecht not to score | 21.9% | 25.0% | −3.1 pp | 4.56 |
| Both teams to score | 67.3% | 62.5% | +4.8 pp | 1.49 |
| Both teams not to score | 32.7% | 37.5% | −4.8 pp | 3.06 |
| Excelsior 2+ goals | 52.6% | 50.0% | +2.6 pp | 1.90 |
| Excelsior at most 1 goal | 47.4% | 50.0% | −2.6 pp | 2.11 |
| FC Utrecht 2+ goals | 41.8% | 42.3% | −0.5 pp | 2.39 |
| FC Utrecht at most 1 goal | 58.2% | 57.7% | +0.5 pp | 1.72 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.4% | 81.1% | +4.3 pp | 1.17 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14.6% | 18.9% | −4.3 pp | 6.86 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.9% | 59.9% | +2.0 pp | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.1% | 40.1% | −2.0 pp | 2.62 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Excelsior sample
- 20 matches
- FC Utrecht sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.