AFC Ajax 2:2 Excelsior: xG & match report · Eredivisie

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 20:00

Full time

Match report · Eredivisie

AFC Ajax Home 2.51 xG · 33 shots

Excelsior Away 0.82 xG · 4 shots

22 AFC Ajax had the better chances, but it finished level

AFC Ajax were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 52%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was AFC Ajax's attack: 2.51 xG against 1.87 projected (+0.64). Excelsior produced 0.82 xG against 1.22 projected (−0.40).

Goals

32' Julian Brandt AFC Ajax · 0.19 xG chance 1–0
45' Lennard Hartjes Excelsior · 0.10 xG chance 1–1
62' Aymen Sliti Excelsior · 0.57 xG chance 1–2
64' Tolu Arokodare AFC Ajax · 0.25 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

AFC Ajax: 52%
Draw: 26% What happened
Excelsior: 22%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

AFC Ajax 1.87 2.51 +0.64

Excelsior 1.22 0.82 -0.40

AFC Ajax produced 0.64 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

AFC Ajax Excelsior

Shots: 33; 4
On target: 8; 2
Inside the box: 24; 4
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.21
Open play xG: 1.74; 0.83
Set-piece xG: 0.62; 0.02
Penalties: —; —

AFC Ajax's shots add up to 2.36 xG and Excelsior's to 0.85; the published figures are 2.51 and 0.82.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

37 shots · 3.21 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

AFC Ajax
Excelsior
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

AFC Ajax

2.67 xG created 1.32 xGA

W 1.97 created, 0.59 conceded against PEC Zwolle
D 2.00 created, 1.36 conceded against SC Heerenveen
W 2.13 created, 1.13 conceded against SC Telstar
L 1.99 created, 2.55 conceded against PSV Eindhoven
W 4.13 created, 0.71 conceded against Fortuna Sittard
W 3.79 created, 1.58 conceded against Willem II Tilburg

Excelsior

1.43 xG created 1.26 xGA

W 2.87 created, 0.72 conceded against SC Cambuur
L 0.51 created, 2.24 conceded against PSV Eindhoven
W 1.21 created, 0.97 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
W 1.60 created, 0.86 conceded against Willem II Tilburg
D 1.81 created, 1.36 conceded against NEC Nijmegen
L 0.61 created, 1.42 conceded against FC Utrecht

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

AFC Ajax: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged4 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on AFC Ajax against Excelsior before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Excelsior to win	11.00	+143.3%	Lost
AFC Ajax not to score	17.00	+123.8%	Lost
AFC Ajax at most 1 goal	5.00	+111.2%	Lost
Draw	7.00	+84.6%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	4.00	+53.6%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	10.00	+48.1%	Lost
Excelsior 2+ goals	3.50	+23.1%	Won
Excelsior to score	1.53	+12.6%	Won
Both teams to score	1.62	+5.3%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AFC Ajax	51.5%	77.8%	−26.3 pp	1.94
Draw	26.4%	13.6%	+12.8 pp	3.79
Excelsior	22.1%	8.6%	+13.5 pp	4.52

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AFC Ajax to score	86.8%	94.3%	−7.5 pp	1.15
AFC Ajax not to score	13.2%	5.7%	+7.5 pp	7.59
Excelsior to score	73.5%	60.8%	+12.7 pp	1.36
Excelsior not to score	26.5%	39.2%	−12.7 pp	3.77
Both teams to score	65.2%	57.7%	+7.6 pp	1.53
Both teams not to score	34.8%	42.3%	−7.6 pp	2.88
AFC Ajax 2+ goals	57.8%	81.1%	−23.3 pp	1.73
AFC Ajax at most 1 goal	42.2%	18.9%	+23.3 pp	2.37
Excelsior 2+ goals	35.2%	26.9%	+8.3 pp	2.84
Excelsior at most 1 goal	64.8%	73.1%	−8.3 pp	1.54
Over 1.5 goals	85.2%	90.4%	−5.2 pp	1.17
Under 1.5 goals	14.8%	9.6%	+5.2 pp	6.75
Over 2.5 goals	61.6%	76.2%	−14.6 pp	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	38.4%	23.8%	+14.6 pp	2.60

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
AFC Ajax sample: 20 matches
Excelsior sample: 20 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.