Eredivisie

Eredivisie results 2026/2027

Every Eredivisie match played this season, newest first, with the xG each side created and the home, draw and away probabilities the model held before kickoff.

xG reading

All Went with the xG Went against the xG

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Model record

Most likely outcome landed in 12 of 30 matches (40%). The probabilities implied about 15 (50%). Brier score 0.60 (reference 0.70; lower is better). How the model works →

Home
Draw
Away

What happened Most likely outcome Upset

Sunday, 20/09/2026

1 match

16:45

NEC Nijmegen 1

Go Ahead Eagles 1

xG 1.04 – 2.31 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

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Saturday, 19/09/2026

2 matches

20:00

AFC Ajax 2

Excelsior 2

xG 2.51 – 0.82 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

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16:30

ADO Den Haag 1

SC Cambuur 1

xG 2.10 – 0.61 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
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Sunday, 13/09/2026

1 match

14:30

SC Heerenveen 0

SC Telstar 0

xG 1.54 – 0.71 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→

Saturday, 12/09/2026

1 match

18:45

Go Ahead Eagles 1

FC Groningen 1

xG 2.23 – 0.16 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
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Friday, 11/09/2026

1 match

20:00

AZ Alkmaar 1

Willem II Tilburg 1

xG 2.48 – 0.93 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

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Tuesday, 08/09/2026

1 match

14:00

FC Utrecht 3

Go Ahead Eagles 3

xG 2.47 – 1.79 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

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Sunday, 06/09/2026

2 matches

14:30

SC Telstar 2

SC Cambuur 2

xG 2.12 – 0.98 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→
12:15

FC Groningen 2

FC Twente 2

xG 1.48 – 2.30 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

→

Friday, 04/09/2026

1 match

20:00

Sparta Rotterdam 2

PEC Zwolle 2

xG 2.23 – 1.07 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→

Sunday, 30/08/2026

1 match

14:30

Feyenoord 2

ADO Den Haag 2

xG 2.47 – 0.24 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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Friday, 28/08/2026

1 match

20:00

FC Groningen 2

Fortuna Sittard 3

xG 1.92 – 0.87 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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Sunday, 16/08/2026

2 matches

16:45

AFC Ajax 2

SC Heerenveen 2

xG 2.00 – 1.36 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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14:30

Feyenoord 2

Go Ahead Eagles 2

xG 2.83 – 1.77 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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Saturday, 15/08/2026

1 match

21:00

Fortuna Sittard 3

SC Cambuur 1

xG 1.91 – 2.51 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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Sunday, 09/08/2026

2 matches

16:45

SC Heerenveen 1

FC Twente 0

xG 0.40 – 1.41 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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14:30

FC Groningen 2

FC Utrecht 1

xG 1.55 – 2.27 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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Saturday, 08/08/2026

1 match

20:00

PSV Eindhoven 2

Fortuna Sittard 2

xG 2.56 – 0.98 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
→

xG is a model estimate of the chances each side created. "Went with the xG" means the side with more xG won; "Went against the xG" means the side with less xG won or the match was drawn across a gap of at least 0.5. The probabilities are the ones the model published before kickoff, rounded so the three add to 100; the outline marks what happened.