Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:30
20d 16h to kick-offFC Utrecht – PEC Zwolle
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Utrecht
- 54%
- Draw
- 25%
- PEC Zwolle
- 20%
| FC Utrecht | Draw | PEC Zwolle | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.84 | 3.98 | 4.89 |
- Total goals
- 3.22
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Utrecht
54% FC Utrecht to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 15th
- FC Utrecht attack v PEC Zwolle defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 16th
- FC Utrecht defence v PEC Zwolle attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.94 vs -1.08
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.99 – 1.23
- FC Utrecht v PEC Zwolle
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Utrecht | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.41 · 10th | 0.94 · 17th |
| xGA / match | 2.11 · 16th | (better) 2.06 · 14th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.70 · 13th | -1.12 · 17th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.14 · 12th | 0.73 · 17th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.94 | -1.08 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- FC Utrecht clean sheet
- 26%
- FC Utrecht 2+ goals
- 61%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 36%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.7%
- 2:1
- 11.2%
- 2:0
- 7.8%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Utrecht sample
- 20 matches
- PEC Zwolle sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Utrecht
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · PEC Zwolle
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.