AZ Alkmaar 1:1 Willem II Tilburg: xG & match report · Eredivisie

Friday, 11/09/2026 at 20:00

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Match report · Eredivisie

AZ Alkmaar Home 2.48 xG · 22 shots

Willem II Tilburg Away 0.93 xG · 8 shots

11 AZ Alkmaar had the better chances, but it finished level

AZ Alkmaar were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 59%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was AZ Alkmaar's attack: 2.48 xG against 2.10 projected (+0.38).

Goals

32' Jordy Clasie AZ Alkmaar · 0.07 xG chance 1–0
81' Devin Haen Willem II Tilburg · 0.20 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

AZ Alkmaar: 59%
Draw: 24% What happened
Willem II Tilburg: 17%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

AZ Alkmaar 2.10 2.48 +0.38

Willem II Tilburg 1.14 0.93 -0.21

AZ Alkmaar produced 0.38 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

AZ Alkmaar Willem II Tilburg

Shots: 22; 8
On target: 5; 2
Inside the box: 16; 6
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.12
Open play xG: 2.13; 0.93
Set-piece xG: 0.37; 0.00
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.48 for AZ Alkmaar.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

30 shots · 3.43 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

AZ Alkmaar
Willem II Tilburg
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

AZ Alkmaar

2.41 xG created 1.29 xGA

D 1.45 created, 2.08 conceded against NAC Breda
W 2.67 created, 0.95 conceded against ADO Den Haag
W 2.10 created, 0.91 conceded against FC Utrecht
W 4.35 created, 0.44 conceded against Fortuna Sittard
W 2.39 created, 1.82 conceded against Go Ahead Eagles
W 1.51 created, 1.52 conceded against SC Heerenveen

Willem II Tilburg

1.38 xG created 2.09 xGA

L 1.51 created, 2.43 conceded against Go Ahead Eagles
L 1.43 created, 2.99 conceded against NEC Nijmegen
D 1.70 created, 1.35 conceded against SC Heerenveen
L 0.86 created, 1.60 conceded against Excelsior

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged5 won4 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on AZ Alkmaar against Willem II Tilburg before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Willem II Tilburg to win	15.00	+156.1%	Lost
Draw	8.50	+101.4%	Won
AZ Alkmaar at most 1 goal	5.00	+78.1%	Won
Willem II Tilburg 2+ goals	5.50	+74.5%	Lost
AZ Alkmaar not to score	17.00	+74.3%	Lost
Willem II Tilburg to score	1.83	+29.4%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	3.60	+26.7%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	9.00	+18.5%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.75	+13.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar	59.2%	82.6%	−23.4 pp	1.69
Draw	23.7%	11.1%	+12.6 pp	4.22
Willem II Tilburg	17.1%	6.3%	+10.8 pp	5.86

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar to score	89.7%	94.3%	−4.6 pp	1.11
AZ Alkmaar not to score	10.3%	5.7%	+4.6 pp	9.75
Willem II Tilburg to score	70.6%	50.0%	+20.6 pp	1.42
Willem II Tilburg not to score	29.4%	50.0%	−20.6 pp	3.40
Both teams to score	64.7%	53.3%	+11.3 pp	1.55
Both teams not to score	35.3%	46.7%	−11.3 pp	2.83
AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals	64.4%	81.1%	−16.7 pp	1.55
AZ Alkmaar at most 1 goal	35.6%	18.9%	+16.7 pp	2.81
Willem II Tilburg 2+ goals	31.7%	17.2%	+14.5 pp	3.15
Willem II Tilburg at most 1 goal	68.3%	82.8%	−14.5 pp	1.46
Over 1.5 goals	86.8%	89.4%	−2.5 pp	1.15
Under 1.5 goals	13.2%	10.6%	+2.5 pp	7.59
Over 2.5 goals	64.8%	73.7%	−8.9 pp	1.54
Under 2.5 goals	35.2%	26.3%	+8.9 pp	2.84

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
AZ Alkmaar sample: 20 matches
Willem II Tilburg sample: 4 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Willem II Tilburg has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.