xgEdge

Expected goals

Willem II Tilburg expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Eredivisie · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

Willem II Tilburg's attacking and defensive expected goals in Eredivisie 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Willem II Tilburg xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.29 xG per match
#13/18
Attack (xG per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 PSV Eindhoven 2.87
#2 Feyenoord 2.76
#3 AFC Ajax 2.65
#4 AZ Alkmaar 2.55
#5 FC Twente 2.28
#6 Go Ahead Eagles 1.91
#7 Sparta Rotterdam 1.64
#8 NEC Nijmegen 1.60
#9 FC Groningen 1.54
#10 FC Utrecht 1.41
#11 SC Cambuur 1.35
#12 Excelsior 1.35
#13 Willem II Tilburg 1.29
#14 SC Heerenveen 1.26
#15 SC Telstar 1.09
#16 Fortuna Sittard 0.97
#17 PEC Zwolle 0.94
#18 ADO Den Haag 0.90
League avg
1.69
Total
9.02 7 matches
Defence
2.28 xGA per match
#17/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 FC Twente 0.75
#2 Feyenoord 0.80
#3 AZ Alkmaar 0.95
#4 AFC Ajax 1.25
#5 SC Heerenveen 1.36
#6 PSV Eindhoven 1.37
#7 Excelsior 1.44
#8 Go Ahead Eagles 1.63
#9 ADO Den Haag 1.90
#10 NEC Nijmegen 1.92
#11 FC Groningen 1.93
#12 SC Cambuur 2.04
#13 SC Telstar 2.05
#14 PEC Zwolle 2.06
#15 Sparta Rotterdam 2.10
#16 FC Utrecht 2.11
#17 Willem II Tilburg 2.28
#18 Fortuna Sittard 2.42
League avg
1.69
Total
15.95 7 matches
xG difference
-0.99 xGD per match
#15/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Feyenoord +1.96
#2 AZ Alkmaar +1.60
#3 FC Twente +1.53
#4 PSV Eindhoven +1.51
#5 AFC Ajax +1.40
#6 Go Ahead Eagles +0.28
#7 Excelsior -0.09
#8 SC Heerenveen -0.10
#9 NEC Nijmegen -0.32
#10 FC Groningen -0.39
#11 Sparta Rotterdam -0.46
#12 SC Cambuur -0.68
#13 FC Utrecht -0.70
#14 SC Telstar -0.96
#15 Willem II Tilburg -0.99
#16 ADO Den Haag -1.00
#17 PEC Zwolle -1.12
#18 Fortuna Sittard -1.46
League avg
0.00
Total
-6.93 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.79 xPts per match
#16/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Feyenoord 2.49
#2 FC Twente 2.43
#3 AZ Alkmaar 2.30
#4 AFC Ajax 2.20
#5 PSV Eindhoven 2.18
#6 Go Ahead Eagles 1.59
#7 Excelsior 1.31
#8 FC Groningen 1.28
#9 SC Heerenveen 1.28
#10 NEC Nijmegen 1.18
#11 Sparta Rotterdam 1.15
#12 FC Utrecht 1.14
#13 SC Cambuur 0.91
#14 ADO Den Haag 0.85
#15 SC Telstar 0.79
#16 Willem II Tilburg 0.79
#17 PEC Zwolle 0.73
#18 Fortuna Sittard 0.72
League avg
1.41
Total
5.52 vs 2 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Willem II Tilburg's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Eredivisie. They rank #15 for xG difference at -0.99 per match, from low shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 6 goals are 3.02 below 9.02 xG, while 2 points are 3.52 below 5.52 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
6 9.02 -3.02 scored 3.02 fewer than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
20 15.95 +4.05 conceded 4.05 more than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
2 5.52 -3.52 3.52 points below xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Willem II Tilburg are 3.02 goals below their xG after 7 matches.

Goals
6
xG
9.02
Gap
-3.02
Sat 08/08 Sat 15/08 Sun 30/08 Sat 05/09 Fri 11/09 Tue 15/09 Sat 19/09 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.51 -0.94 -0.64 -1.50 -1.43 -2.01 -3.02 -0.51 -0.43 +0.30 -0.86 +0.07 -0.58 -1.01 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Willem II Tilburg: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 08/08 Go Ahead Eagles 1 1.51 -0.51 -0.51
Sat 15/08 NEC Nijmegen 1 1.43 -0.43 -0.94
Sun 30/08 SC Heerenveen 2 1.70 +0.30 -0.64
Sat 05/09 Excelsior 0 0.86 -0.86 -1.50
Fri 11/09 AZ Alkmaar 1 0.93 +0.07 -1.43
Tue 15/09 AFC Ajax 1 1.58 -0.58 -2.01
Sat 19/09 Fortuna Sittard 0 1.01 -1.01 -3.02

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Willem II Tilburg xG trend

Current form -1.00 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 1 of 7 matches. The worst was against AFC Ajax on Tue 15/09 (-2.21).

npxG · last 6
1.25
npxGA · last 6
2.26
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 -1.03 Sat 08/08 -1.43 Sat 15/08 +0.35 Sun 30/08 -0.86 Sat 05/09 -1.55 Fri 11/09 -2.21 Tue 15/09 -0.32 Sat 19/09 -1.01 season avg
Willem II Tilburg: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 08/08 Go Ahead Eagles 1.37 2.40 -1.03 -1.03
Sat 15/08 NEC Nijmegen 1.56 2.99 -1.43 -1.23
Sun 30/08 SC Heerenveen 1.70 1.35 +0.35 -0.70
Sat 05/09 Excelsior 0.74 1.60 -0.86 -0.74
Fri 11/09 AZ Alkmaar 0.93 2.48 -1.55 -0.90
Tue 15/09 AFC Ajax 1.58 3.79 -2.21 -1.12
Sat 19/09 Fortuna Sittard 1.01 1.33 -0.32 -1.01

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.27 npxG and 2.28 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 9 hardest of 18 in Eredivisie
+0.03 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
tied number 9 hardest of 18 in Eredivisie
+0.04 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.03 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 9 hardest of 18

  1. Fortuna Sittard Home −0.68
  2. AFC Ajax Away +0.62
  3. AZ Alkmaar Away +0.56
  4. Excelsior Home −0.16
  5. SC Heerenveen Home −0.17
  6. NEC Nijmegen Home +0.13
  7. Go Ahead Eagles Away −0.13

Last 5

+0.04 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 9 hardest of 18

  1. Fortuna Sittard Home −0.68
  2. AFC Ajax Away +0.62
  3. AZ Alkmaar Away +0.56
  4. Excelsior Home −0.16
  5. SC Heerenveen Home −0.17

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Willem II Tilburg shots and chance quality

Low volume, average quality. Willem II Tilburg take 11.9 shots a match (league 15.0) at 0.11 npxG a shot (league 0.11), =11 in Eredivisie for volume and #9 for quality. 67% of their shots come from inside the box (league 66%), and set pieces produce 9% of their npxG (league 18%).

Attack

Shot volume
11.9 shots per match
=11/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 AFC Ajax 24.7
#2 Feyenoord 22.3
#3 FC Twente 21.6
#4 PSV Eindhoven 21.0
#5 AZ Alkmaar 19.4
#6 SC Heerenveen 16.0
=7 Go Ahead Eagles 15.1
=7 NEC Nijmegen 15.1
#9 FC Groningen 15.0
#10 Sparta Rotterdam 13.1
=11 ADO Den Haag 11.9
=11 SC Cambuur 11.9
=11 Willem II Tilburg 11.9
#14 Excelsior 11.3
#15 FC Utrecht 10.9
#16 PEC Zwolle 10.6
#17 Fortuna Sittard 10.1
#18 SC Telstar 7.9
League avg
15.0
Total
83 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.11 npxG per shot
#9/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 AZ Alkmaar 0.13
#2 Go Ahead Eagles 0.13
#3 PSV Eindhoven 0.13
#4 Sparta Rotterdam 0.12
#5 Excelsior 0.12
#6 FC Utrecht 0.12
#7 Feyenoord 0.12
#8 SC Cambuur 0.11
#9 Willem II Tilburg 0.11
#10 AFC Ajax 0.11
#11 SC Telstar 0.10
#12 NEC Nijmegen 0.10
#13 FC Groningen 0.10
#14 FC Twente 0.09
#15 Fortuna Sittard 0.09
#16 PEC Zwolle 0.09
#17 SC Heerenveen 0.08
#18 ADO Den Haag 0.08
League avg
0.11
Total
8.89 npxG from 83 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
19.9 shots per match
#16/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 AZ Alkmaar 8.1
=2 AFC Ajax 9.6
=2 Feyenoord 9.6
#4 FC Twente 10.0
#5 PSV Eindhoven 10.1
#6 NEC Nijmegen 11.6
#7 FC Groningen 15.1
=8 SC Cambuur 15.9
=8 SC Heerenveen 15.9
=10 ADO Den Haag 16.1
=10 Excelsior 16.1
#12 Go Ahead Eagles 16.6
#13 SC Telstar 17.9
#14 Sparta Rotterdam 18.0
#15 FC Utrecht 18.6
#16 Willem II Tilburg 19.9
#17 Fortuna Sittard 20.3
#18 PEC Zwolle 20.4
League avg
15.0
Total
139 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.11 npxGA per shot
#11/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 FC Twente 0.06
#2 Feyenoord 0.08
#3 Excelsior 0.09
#4 SC Heerenveen 0.09
#5 Go Ahead Eagles 0.09
#6 PEC Zwolle 0.10
#7 FC Utrecht 0.10
#8 SC Telstar 0.11
#9 ADO Den Haag 0.11
#10 SC Cambuur 0.11
#11 Willem II Tilburg 0.11
#12 Fortuna Sittard 0.12
#13 Sparta Rotterdam 0.12
#14 AZ Alkmaar 0.12
#15 FC Groningen 0.12
#16 AFC Ajax 0.13
#17 PSV Eindhoven 0.13
#18 NEC Nijmegen 0.17
League avg
0.11
Total
15.94 npxGA from 139 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

67% inside the box

League avg 66%

From 56 of 83 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

69% allowed inside the box

League avg 66%

From 96 of 139 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

91% open play · 9% set pieces

League avg 18% set pieces

From 0.8 of 8.8 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

85% open play · 15% set pieces

League avg 18% set pieces

From 2.3 of 15.9 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Willem II Tilburg home and away xG

Willem II Tilburg per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 4 3
xG / match 1.25 1.34
xGA / match 1.81 2.90
xGD / match -0.56 -1.56
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.00 0.51

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Willem II Tilburg match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
1.29
xGA / match
2.28
xGD / match
-0.99
Points
2 of 21
  1. Sat 19/09 Fortuna Sittard H xG 1.01 xGA 1.31 xGD -0.30
  2. Tue 15/09 AFC Ajax A Weakest underlying xG 1.58 xGA 3.79 xGD -2.21
  3. Fri 11/09 AZ Alkmaar A xG 0.93 xGA 2.48 xGD -1.55
  4. Sat 05/09 Excelsior H xG 0.86 xGA 1.60 xGD -0.74
  5. Sun 30/08 SC Heerenveen H Best underlying xG 1.70 xGA 1.35 xGD +0.35
  6. Sat 15/08 NEC Nijmegen H xG 1.43 xGA 2.99 xGD -1.56
  7. Sat 08/08 Go Ahead Eagles A xG 1.51 xGA 2.43 xGD -0.92

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.79. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Willem II Tilburg in Eredivisie

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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