Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 21:00
12d 19h to kick-offSparta Rotterdam – Willem II Tilburg
Model updated 5 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Sparta Rotterdam
- 48%
- Draw
- 25%
- Willem II Tilburg
- 27%
| Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | Willem II Tilburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.07 | 3.96 | 3.77 |
- Total goals
- 3.46
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69%
- Both teams to score
- 72%
One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Sparta Rotterdam
48% Sparta Rotterdam to win
- Attack
- 11th vs 18th
- Sparta Rotterdam attack v Willem II Tilburg defence
- Defence
- 16th vs 13th
- Sparta Rotterdam defence v Willem II Tilburg attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.12 vs -1.00
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.98 – 1.48
- Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II Tilburg
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 7 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Sparta Rotterdam | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.64 · 7th | 1.29 · 13th |
| xGA / match | (better) 2.10 · 15th | 2.28 · 17th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.46 · 11th | -0.99 · 15th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.15 · 11th | 0.79 · 16th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.12 | -1.00 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 29% of the model's distribution.
- Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet
- 20%
- Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals
- 61%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 31%
- Both teams to score: no
- 28%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 10.8%
- 2:1
- 10.3%
- 2:2
- 8.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sparta Rotterdam sample
- 20 matches
- Willem II Tilburg sample
- 7 matches
- Home xG sample · Sparta Rotterdam
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Willem II Tilburg
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- Willem II Tilburg has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.