Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 16:45
Full timeNEC Nijmegen 1:1 Go Ahead Eagles
NEC Nijmegen were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 54%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was NEC Nijmegen's attack: 1.04 xG against 2.16 projected (−1.12). Go Ahead Eagles produced 2.31 xG against 1.40 projected (+0.91).
Goals
- 2' Perr Schuurs NEC Nijmegen · 0.03 xG chance 1–0
- 10' Stefán Ingi Sigurðarson Go Ahead Eagles · 0.59 xG chance 1–1
The model against the result
- NEC Nijmegen
- 54%
- Draw
- 24% What happened
- Go Ahead Eagles
- 22%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
NEC Nijmegen produced 1.12 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 17
- 14
- On target
- 5
- 6
- Inside the box
- 9
- 11
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.17
- Open play xG
- 0.81
- 2.09
- Set-piece xG
- 0.24
- 0.28
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.04 for NEC Nijmegen and 2.31 for Go Ahead Eagles.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
31 shots · 3.42 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- NEC Nijmegen
- Go Ahead Eagles
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.69 xG created 1.85 xGA
1.84 xG created 1.72 xGA
- W 2.43 created, 1.51 conceded against Willem II Tilburg
- D 1.77 created, 2.83 conceded against Feyenoord
- W 1.01 created, 0.99 conceded against ADO Den Haag
- L 1.82 created, 2.39 conceded against AZ Alkmaar
- D 1.79 created, 2.47 conceded against FC Utrecht
- D 2.23 created, 0.16 conceded against FC Groningen
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen to win | 1.91 | +3.9% | Lost |
| Go Ahead Eagles at most 1 goal | 1.73 | +0.5% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | 54.4% | 49.7% | +4.7 pp | 1.84 |
| Draw | 23.8% | 23.2% | +0.6 pp | 4.21 |
| Go Ahead Eagles | 21.8% | 27.1% | −5.3 pp | 4.58 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen to score | 90.4% | 88.1% | +2.3 pp | 1.11 |
| NEC Nijmegen not to score | 9.6% | 11.9% | −2.3 pp | 10.44 |
| Go Ahead Eagles to score | 78.0% | 78.3% | −0.3 pp | 1.28 |
| Go Ahead Eagles not to score | 22.0% | 21.7% | +0.3 pp | 4.55 |
| Both teams to score | 71.7% | 70.9% | +0.8 pp | 1.39 |
| Both teams not to score | 28.3% | 29.1% | −0.8 pp | 3.54 |
| NEC Nijmegen 2+ goals | 66.0% | 62.5% | +3.5 pp | 1.52 |
| NEC Nijmegen at most 1 goal | 34.0% | 37.5% | −3.5 pp | 2.94 |
| Go Ahead Eagles 2+ goals | 41.8% | 46.3% | −4.6 pp | 2.39 |
| Go Ahead Eagles at most 1 goal | 58.2% | 53.7% | +4.6 pp | 1.72 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.2% | 88.1% | +2.1 pp | 1.11 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 9.8% | 11.9% | −2.1 pp | 10.21 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.3% | 71.8% | −0.6 pp | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.7% | 28.2% | +0.6 pp | 3.48 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NEC Nijmegen sample
- 20 matches
- Go Ahead Eagles sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.