Friday, 23/10/2026 at 20:00
19d 19h to kick-offGo Ahead Eagles – SC Telstar
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Go Ahead Eagles
- 52%
- Draw
- 26%
- SC Telstar
- 22%
| Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | SC Telstar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.92 | 3.87 | 4.55 |
- Total goals
- 3.17
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Go Ahead Eagles
52% Go Ahead Eagles to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 12th
- Go Ahead Eagles attack v SC Telstar defence
- Defence
- 14th vs 18th
- Go Ahead Eagles defence v SC Telstar attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.17 vs -1.04
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.92 – 1.25
- Go Ahead Eagles v SC Telstar
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Go Ahead Eagles | SC Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.91 · 6th | 1.09 · 15th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.63 · 8th | 2.05 · 13th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.28 · 6th | -0.96 · 14th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.59 · 6th | 0.79 · 15th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.17 | -1.04 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- Go Ahead Eagles clean sheet
- 26%
- Go Ahead Eagles 2+ goals
- 59%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 37%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.1%
- 2:1
- 11.2%
- 2:0
- 7.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Go Ahead Eagles sample
- 20 matches
- SC Telstar sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Go Ahead Eagles
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · SC Telstar
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.