Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 20:00
Kicked offNEC Nijmegen – Excelsior
Model not yet run Odds not yet available
What the model expects
This match has not been through the model yet, so there is no projection to show for it.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | NEC Nijmegen | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.60 · 8th | 1.35 · 12th |
| xGA / match | 1.92 · 10th | (better) 1.44 · 7th |
| xGD / match | -0.32 · 9th | (better) -0.09 · 7th |
| xPts / match | 1.18 · 10th | (better) 1.31 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.19 | +0.57 |
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NEC Nijmegen sample
- 20 matches
- Excelsior sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · NEC Nijmegen
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Excelsior
- 4 matches
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.