KRC Genk 1:1 KAA Gent: xG & match report · Jupiler Pro League

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Jupiler Pro League

KRC Genk Home 0.94 xG · 17 shots

KAA Gent Away 0.89 xG · 16 shots

11 The chances were evenly matched

KRC Genk were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was KRC Genk's attack: 0.94 xG against 1.52 projected (−0.58).

Goals

10' Momodou Sonko KAA Gent · 0.04 xG chance 0–1
47' Rafiu Durosinmi KRC Genk · 0.16 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

KRC Genk: 47%
Draw: 30% What happened
KAA Gent: 23%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

KRC Genk 1.52 0.94 -0.58

KAA Gent 1.03 0.89 -0.14

KRC Genk produced 0.58 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

KRC Genk KAA Gent

Shots: 17; 16
On target: 6; 5
Inside the box: 10; 11
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.06
Open play xG: 0.50; 0.45
Set-piece xG: 0.43; 0.47
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.94 for KRC Genk and 0.89 for KAA Gent.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

33 shots · 1.85 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

KRC Genk
KAA Gent
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

KRC Genk

1.77 xG created 1.17 xGA

D 1.09 created, 2.48 conceded against KAA Gent
L 0.54 created, 0.51 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem
W 4.24 created, 0.85 conceded against KVC Westerlo
D 1.30 created, 1.86 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
W 3.06 created, 0.61 conceded against SK Beveren
D 0.40 created, 0.70 conceded against RSC Anderlecht

KAA Gent

1.40 xG created 0.61 xGA

D 2.48 created, 1.09 conceded against KRC Genk
W 1.16 created, 0.34 conceded against KV Mechelen
W 1.18 created, 0.54 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
W 1.38 created, 0.65 conceded against Club Brugge KV
W 0.98 created, 0.52 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
W 1.22 created, 0.49 conceded against Cercle Brugge

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

KRC Genk: 1 won · 2 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged1 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on KRC Genk against KAA Gent before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
KAA Gent at most 1 goal	1.44	+4.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
KRC Genk	47.1%	44.2%	+2.9 pp	2.12
Draw	30.1%	27.5%	+2.6 pp	3.33
KAA Gent	22.8%	28.3%	−5.5 pp	4.38

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
KRC Genk to score	80.8%	76.6%	+4.2 pp	1.24
KRC Genk not to score	19.2%	23.4%	−4.2 pp	5.20
KAA Gent to score	67.3%	68.7%	−1.5 pp	1.49
KAA Gent not to score	32.7%	31.3%	+1.5 pp	3.06
Both teams to score	56.1%	54.7%	+1.5 pp	1.78
Both teams not to score	43.9%	45.3%	−1.5 pp	2.28
KRC Genk 2+ goals	46.3%	44.3%	+2.1 pp	2.16
KRC Genk at most 1 goal	53.7%	55.7%	−2.1 pp	1.86
KAA Gent 2+ goals	27.7%	35.5%	−7.8 pp	3.62
KAA Gent at most 1 goal	72.3%	64.5%	+7.8 pp	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	76.6%	73.1%	+3.5 pp	1.31
Under 1.5 goals	23.4%	26.9%	−3.5 pp	4.27
Over 2.5 goals	48.1%	48.7%	−0.6 pp	2.08
Under 2.5 goals	51.9%	51.3%	+0.6 pp	1.93

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
KRC Genk sample: 20 matches
KAA Gent sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.