Thursday, 03/09/2026 at 20:30
Full timeKAA Gent 1:0 Oud-Heverlee Leuven
KAA Gent were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was KAA Gent's attack: 0.98 xG against 1.61 projected (−0.63). Oud-Heverlee Leuven produced 0.52 xG against 1.05 projected (−0.53).
Goals
- 46' Tiago Araújo KAA Gent · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
The model against the result
- KAA Gent
- 49% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- 22%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
KAA Gent produced 0.63 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 8
- On target
- 1
- 1
- Inside the box
- 7
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 0.37
- 0.64
- Set-piece xG
- 0.62
- 0.12
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.98 for KAA Gent and 0.79 for Oud-Heverlee Leuven.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
23 shots · 1.75 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- KAA Gent
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.51 xG created 1.12 xGA
- D 1.46 created, 1.17 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- L 1.42 created, 2.91 conceded against Club Brugge KV
- D 2.48 created, 1.09 conceded against KRC Genk
- W 1.16 created, 0.34 conceded against KV Mechelen
- W 1.18 created, 0.54 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
- W 1.38 created, 0.65 conceded against Club Brugge KV
1.20 xG created 1.96 xGA
- W 1.34 created, 0.92 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
- D 0.83 created, 2.18 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
- L 1.11 created, 1.25 conceded against KRC Genk
- L 1.30 created, 3.15 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
- L 0.72 created, 2.92 conceded against Club Brugge KV
- L 1.89 created, 1.36 conceded against Standard Liège
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged1 won4 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| KAA Gent at most 1 goal | 2.10 | +6.7% | Won |
| Draw | 3.60 | +4.7% | Lost |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven to win | 4.75 | +3.6% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | +3.5% | Lost |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven to score | 1.50 | +1.6% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAA Gent | 49.1% | 55.1% | −6.0 pp | 2.04 |
| Draw | 29.1% | 25.5% | +3.6 pp | 3.44 |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 21.8% | 19.3% | +2.5 pp | 4.58 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAA Gent to score | 82.4% | 82.8% | −0.4 pp | 1.21 |
| KAA Gent not to score | 17.6% | 17.2% | +0.4 pp | 5.67 |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven to score | 67.8% | 62.5% | +5.3 pp | 1.48 |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven not to score | 32.2% | 37.5% | −5.3 pp | 3.10 |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | 52.0% | +5.5 pp | 1.74 |
| Both teams not to score | 42.5% | 48.0% | −5.5 pp | 2.35 |
| KAA Gent 2+ goals | 49.2% | 55.7% | −6.5 pp | 2.03 |
| KAA Gent at most 1 goal | 50.8% | 44.3% | +6.5 pp | 1.97 |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2+ goals | 28.1% | 27.7% | +0.5 pp | 3.55 |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven at most 1 goal | 71.9% | 72.3% | −0.5 pp | 1.39 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.3% | 75.0% | +3.3 pp | 1.28 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.7% | 25.0% | −3.3 pp | 4.62 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.7% | 51.3% | −0.6 pp | 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.3% | 48.7% | +0.6 pp | 2.03 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- KAA Gent sample
- 20 matches
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.