RAAL La Louvière 3:0 KV Kortrijk: xG & match report · Jupiler Pro League

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 19:15

Full time

Match report · Jupiler Pro League

RAAL La Louvière Home 3.58 xG · 17 shots

KV Kortrijk Away 0.81 xG · 10 shots

30 The scoreline reflected the chances

RAAL La Louvière were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was RAAL La Louvière's attack: 3.58 xG against 1.35 projected (+2.23). KV Kortrijk produced 0.81 xG against 1.19 projected (−0.38).

Goals

7' Mustapha Isah RAAL La Louvière · 0.59 xG chance 1–0
37' Mustapha Isah RAAL La Louvière · 0.32 xG chance 2–0
85' Elias Filet RAAL La Louvière · 0.63 xG chance 3–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

RAAL La Louvière: 38% What happened
Draw: 31%
KV Kortrijk: 30%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

RAAL La Louvière 1.35 3.58 +2.23

KV Kortrijk 1.19 0.81 -0.38

RAAL La Louvière produced 2.23 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

RAAL La Louvière KV Kortrijk

Shots: 17; 10
On target: 6; 2
Inside the box: 11; 7
xG per shot: 0.18; 0.08
Open play xG: 2.83; 0.51
Set-piece xG: 0.24; 0.32
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.01 for RAAL La Louvière and 0.81 for KV Kortrijk.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 3.90 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

RAAL La Louvière
KV Kortrijk
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

RAAL La Louvière

1.09 xG created 1.90 xGA

W 1.55 created, 1.52 conceded against Cercle Brugge
L 0.74 created, 3.05 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
L 0.54 created, 1.18 conceded against KAA Gent
L 1.07 created, 1.15 conceded against Standard Liège
D 2.17 created, 2.11 conceded against KV Mechelen
L 0.44 created, 2.40 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV

KV Kortrijk

0.77 xG created 1.88 xGA

L 0.86 created, 3.85 conceded against Club Brugge KV
L 0.77 created, 1.19 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
L 1.20 created, 1.69 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
L 0.46 created, 1.50 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
L 0.55 created, 1.19 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost

Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on RAAL La Louvière against KV Kortrijk before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.75	+0.6%	Lost
Draw	3.20	+0.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
RAAL La Louvière	38.3%	38.6%	−0.3 pp	2.61
Draw	31.3%	28.4%	+3.0 pp	3.19
KV Kortrijk	30.4%	33.0%	−2.6 pp	3.29

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
RAAL La Louvière to score	76.8%	73.1%	+3.6 pp	1.30
RAAL La Louvière not to score	23.2%	26.9%	−3.6 pp	4.31
KV Kortrijk to score	72.4%	70.9%	+1.5 pp	1.38
KV Kortrijk not to score	27.6%	29.1%	−1.5 pp	3.63
Both teams to score	57.5%	53.3%	+4.1 pp	1.74
Both teams not to score	42.5%	46.7%	−4.1 pp	2.35
RAAL La Louvière 2+ goals	40.0%	41.1%	−1.1 pp	2.50
RAAL La Louvière at most 1 goal	60.0%	58.9%	+1.1 pp	1.67
KV Kortrijk 2+ goals	33.9%	35.5%	−1.6 pp	2.95
KV Kortrijk at most 1 goal	66.1%	64.5%	+1.6 pp	1.51
Over 1.5 goals	76.4%	73.1%	+3.2 pp	1.31
Under 1.5 goals	23.6%	26.9%	−3.2 pp	4.23
Over 2.5 goals	47.7%	48.7%	−1.0 pp	2.10
Under 2.5 goals	52.3%	51.3%	+1.0 pp	1.91

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
RAAL La Louvière sample: 20 matches
KV Kortrijk sample: 5 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Warnings

KV Kortrijk has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.