Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 20:45
Full timeRSC Anderlecht 3:0 SV Zulte Waregem
RSC Anderlecht were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was RSC Anderlecht's attack: 2.59 xG against 1.44 projected (+1.15).
Goals
- 40' Tawfik Bentayeb RSC Anderlecht · 0.74 xG chance 1–0
- 48' Marten Winkler RSC Anderlecht · 0.16 xG chance 2–0
- 54' Marten Winkler RSC Anderlecht · 0.46 xG chance 3–0
The model against the result
- RSC Anderlecht
- 40% What happened
- Draw
- 30%
- SV Zulte Waregem
- 30%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
RSC Anderlecht produced 1.15 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 16
- 10
- On target
- 8
- 4
- Inside the box
- 11
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.17
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 1.84
- 0.93
- Set-piece xG
- 0.91
- 0.09
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.78 for RSC Anderlecht and 0.99 for SV Zulte Waregem.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
26 shots · 3.77 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- RSC Anderlecht
- SV Zulte Waregem
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.46 xG created 0.85 xGA
- W 3.05 created, 0.74 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
- L 1.27 created, 0.64 conceded against SK Beveren
- L 1.34 created, 1.60 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- W 1.50 created, 0.46 conceded against KV Kortrijk
- D 0.70 created, 0.40 conceded against KRC Genk
- W 0.91 created, 1.23 conceded against KV Mechelen
1.30 xG created 1.09 xGA
- W 0.51 created, 0.54 conceded against KRC Genk
- D 0.98 created, 0.89 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- W 2.62 created, 0.78 conceded against SK Beveren
- D 1.51 created, 2.16 conceded against KVC Westerlo
- W 1.19 created, 0.55 conceded against KV Kortrijk
- L 1.00 created, 1.64 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged0 won8 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| SV Zulte Waregem to win | 4.20 | +24.4% | Lost |
| RSC Anderlecht not to score | 5.50 | +16.0% | Lost |
| SV Zulte Waregem 2+ goals | 3.25 | +15.0% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.75 | +13.8% | Lost |
| RSC Anderlecht at most 1 goal | 2.00 | +13.2% | Lost |
| SV Zulte Waregem to score | 1.44 | +6.3% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | +4.9% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | +1.8% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSC Anderlecht | 40.0% | 53.8% | −13.8 pp | 2.50 |
| Draw | 30.3% | 24.4% | +5.9 pp | 3.30 |
| SV Zulte Waregem | 29.6% | 21.8% | +7.8 pp | 3.38 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSC Anderlecht to score | 78.9% | 82.8% | −3.9 pp | 1.27 |
| RSC Anderlecht not to score | 21.1% | 17.2% | +3.9 pp | 4.74 |
| SV Zulte Waregem to score | 73.6% | 64.5% | +9.1 pp | 1.36 |
| SV Zulte Waregem not to score | 26.4% | 35.5% | −9.1 pp | 3.79 |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | 54.7% | +5.2 pp | 1.67 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.1% | 45.3% | −5.2 pp | 2.49 |
| RSC Anderlecht 2+ goals | 43.4% | 53.7% | −10.3 pp | 2.30 |
| RSC Anderlecht at most 1 goal | 56.6% | 46.3% | +10.3 pp | 1.77 |
| SV Zulte Waregem 2+ goals | 35.4% | 29.1% | +6.3 pp | 2.83 |
| SV Zulte Waregem at most 1 goal | 64.6% | 70.9% | −6.3 pp | 1.55 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.8% | 78.3% | +0.5 pp | 1.27 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.2% | 21.7% | −0.5 pp | 4.71 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% | 56.3% | −5.1 pp | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.8% | 43.7% | +5.1 pp | 2.05 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- RSC Anderlecht sample
- 20 matches
- SV Zulte Waregem sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 12 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 12 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.