xgEdge

Expected goals

Barcelona expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

La Liga · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

Barcelona's attacking and defensive expected goals in La Liga 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Barcelona xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
4.07 xG per match
#1/20
Attack (xG per match) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Barcelona 4.07
#2 Real Madrid 2.64
#3 Villarreal 2.38
#4 Atlético Madrid 1.72
#5 Athletic Club 1.64
#6 Real Betis 1.52
#7 Racing de Santander 1.45
#8 Levante UD 1.33
#9 Deportivo Alavés 1.28
#10 Rayo Vallecano 1.27
#11 Espanyol 1.24
#12 Osasuna 1.24
#13 Elche 1.24
#14 Real Sociedad 1.19
#15 Celta Vigo 1.01
#16 Sevilla 0.99
#17 Deportivo La Coruña 0.97
#18 Valencia 0.87
#19 Málaga 0.84
#20 Getafe 0.69
League avg
1.48
Total
28.52 7 matches
Defence
1.09 xGA per match
#3/20
Defence (xGA per match) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Atlético Madrid 1.02
#2 Real Madrid 1.09
#3 Barcelona 1.09
#4 Deportivo La Coruña 1.15
#5 Deportivo Alavés 1.19
#6 Villarreal 1.25
#7 Celta Vigo 1.26
#8 Getafe 1.27
#9 Sevilla 1.30
#10 Athletic Club 1.36
#11 Espanyol 1.36
#12 Osasuna 1.39
#13 Valencia 1.64
#14 Málaga 1.66
#15 Real Sociedad 1.68
#16 Rayo Vallecano 1.76
#17 Real Betis 1.86
#18 Elche 2.01
#19 Levante UD 2.08
#20 Racing de Santander 2.20
League avg
1.48
Total
7.62 7 matches
xG difference
+2.99 xGD per match
#1/20
xG difference (xGD per match) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Barcelona +2.99
#2 Real Madrid +1.55
#3 Villarreal +1.12
#4 Atlético Madrid +0.70
#5 Athletic Club +0.28
#6 Deportivo Alavés +0.09
#7 Espanyol -0.12
#8 Osasuna -0.15
#9 Deportivo La Coruña -0.18
#10 Celta Vigo -0.26
#11 Sevilla -0.31
#12 Real Betis -0.34
#13 Rayo Vallecano -0.50
#14 Real Sociedad -0.50
#15 Getafe -0.57
#16 Levante UD -0.75
#17 Racing de Santander -0.76
#18 Elche -0.77
#19 Valencia -0.78
#20 Málaga -0.83
League avg
0.00
Total
+20.90 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
2.66 xPts per match
#1/20
Expected points (xPts per match) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Barcelona 2.66
#2 Real Madrid 2.27
#3 Villarreal 1.92
#4 Atlético Madrid 1.86
#5 Athletic Club 1.82
#6 Deportivo Alavés 1.44
#7 Osasuna 1.36
#8 Espanyol 1.35
#9 Sevilla 1.30
#10 Celta Vigo 1.28
#11 Real Betis 1.20
#12 Real Sociedad 1.17
#13 Elche 1.14
#14 Racing de Santander 1.14
#15 Deportivo La Coruña 1.14
#16 Rayo Vallecano 1.12
#17 Levante UD 1.04
#18 Getafe 0.92
#19 Valencia 0.91
#20 Málaga 0.86
League avg
1.39
Total
18.59 vs 21 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Barcelona's underlying numbers are league-leading. They rank #1 for xG difference at +2.99 per match, driven by both the league's highest shot volume and the league's best chance quality. Their 31 goals are 2.48 above 28.52 xG, while 21 points are 2.41 above 18.59 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 4.75 xG from penalties
31 28.52 +2.48 scored 2.48 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
7 7.62 -0.62 conceded 0.62 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
21 18.59 +2.41 2.41 points above xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Barcelona are 2.48 goals above their xG after 7 matches. The gap was widest at +2.95, against Racing de Santander on Wed 16/09.

Goals
31
xG
28.52
Gap
+2.48
Sun 23/08 Thu 27/08 Mon 31/08 Sun 06/09 Sun 13/09 Wed 16/09 Sat 19/09 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +0.62 -1.61 +0.35 +1.27 +2.69 +2.95 +2.48 +0.62 -2.23 +1.96 +0.92 +1.42 +0.26 -0.47 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Barcelona: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 23/08 Elche 5 4.38 +0.62 +0.62
Thu 27/08 Athletic Club 2 4.23 -2.23 -1.61
Mon 31/08 Rayo Vallecano 5 3.04 +1.96 +0.35
Sun 06/09 Valencia 5 4.08 +0.92 +1.27
Sun 13/09 Levante UD 4 2.58 +1.42 +2.69
Wed 16/09 Racing de Santander 7 6.74 +0.26 +2.95
Sat 19/09 Sevilla 3 3.47 -0.47 +2.48

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Barcelona xG trend

Current form +2.24 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 6 of 7 matches. The only negative was against Levante UD on Sun 13/09 (-0.75).

npxG · last 6
3.40
npxGA · last 6
1.16
-1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +2.63 Sun 23/08 +3.67 Thu 27/08 +1.87 Mon 31/08 +3.32 Sun 06/09 -0.75 Sun 13/09 +2.52 Wed 16/09 +2.82 Sat 19/09 +2.30 season avg
Barcelona: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 23/08 Elche 3.35 0.72 +2.63 +2.63
Thu 27/08 Athletic Club 3.92 0.25 +3.67 +3.15
Mon 31/08 Rayo Vallecano 2.96 1.09 +1.87 +2.72
Sun 06/09 Valencia 4.05 0.73 +3.32 +2.87
Sun 13/09 Levante UD 1.84 2.59 -0.75 +2.15
Wed 16/09 Racing de Santander 4.38 1.86 +2.52 +2.21
Sat 19/09 Sevilla 3.27 0.45 +2.82 +2.30

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 3.40 npxG and 1.10 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 15 hardest of 20 in La Liga
−0.06 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 16 hardest of 20 in La Liga
−0.11 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.06 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 15 hardest of 20

  1. Sevilla Away −0.07
  2. Racing de Santander Home −0.33
  3. Levante UD Away 0.00
  4. Valencia Away −0.22
  5. Rayo Vallecano Home +0.06
  6. Athletic Club Home +0.40
  7. Elche Away −0.26

Last 5

−0.11 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 16 hardest of 20

  1. Sevilla Away −0.07
  2. Racing de Santander Home −0.33
  3. Levante UD Away 0.00
  4. Valencia Away −0.22
  5. Rayo Vallecano Home +0.06

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Barcelona shots and chance quality

High volume, high quality. Barcelona take 21.4 shots a match (league 13.2) at 0.16 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #1 in La Liga for volume and #1 for quality. 73% of their shots come from inside the box (league 62%), and set pieces produce 17% of their npxG (league 20%).

Attack

Shot volume
21.4 shots per match
#1/20
Shot volume (shots per match) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Barcelona 21.4
#2 Real Madrid 18.9
#3 Real Betis 17.4
#4 Atlético Madrid 16.9
#5 Villarreal 16.0
#6 Athletic Club 15.7
#7 Espanyol 13.6
=8 Rayo Vallecano 13.4
=8 Real Sociedad 13.4
#10 Deportivo Alavés 12.4
#11 Getafe 11.7
#12 Elche 11.3
#13 Sevilla 11.0
#14 Levante UD 10.7
#15 Valencia 10.6
=16 Celta Vigo 10.3
=16 Racing de Santander 10.3
#18 Deportivo La Coruña 10.1
#19 Málaga 10.0
#20 Osasuna 9.4
League avg
13.2
Total
150 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.16 npxG per shot
#1/20
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Barcelona 0.16
#2 Levante UD 0.13
#3 Real Madrid 0.13
#4 Villarreal 0.13
#5 Deportivo Alavés 0.11
#6 Racing de Santander 0.10
#7 Elche 0.10
#8 Deportivo La Coruña 0.10
#9 Osasuna 0.10
#10 Rayo Vallecano 0.09
#11 Athletic Club 0.09
#12 Espanyol 0.09
#13 Real Betis 0.09
#14 Atlético Madrid 0.09
#15 Valencia 0.08
#16 Celta Vigo 0.08
#17 Real Sociedad 0.08
#18 Sevilla 0.07
#19 Málaga 0.06
#20 Getafe 0.06
League avg
0.10
Total
23.77 npxG from 150 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
7.3 shots per match
#1/20
Shots allowed (shots per match) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Barcelona 7.3
#2 Athletic Club 9.5
#3 Atlético Madrid 9.7
#4 Sevilla 11.3
#5 Espanyol 12.0
#6 Deportivo Alavés 12.1
#7 Celta Vigo 12.4
=8 Osasuna 12.7
=8 Real Madrid 12.7
=10 Deportivo La Coruña 12.9
=10 Villarreal 12.9
#12 Getafe 13.3
#13 Málaga 14.9
#14 Levante UD 15.2
=15 Elche 15.3
=15 Valencia 15.3
#17 Real Betis 15.7
#18 Real Sociedad 15.9
#19 Rayo Vallecano 16.6
#20 Racing de Santander 16.7
League avg
13.2
Total
51 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.15 npxGA per shot
#20/20
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across La Liga, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Deportivo Alavés 0.07
#2 Getafe 0.07
#3 Real Madrid 0.08
#4 Atlético Madrid 0.08
#5 Rayo Vallecano 0.09
#6 Deportivo La Coruña 0.09
#7 Villarreal 0.09
#8 Celta Vigo 0.09
#9 Real Sociedad 0.10
#10 Málaga 0.10
#11 Athletic Club 0.10
#12 Valencia 0.10
#13 Racing de Santander 0.11
#14 Espanyol 0.11
#15 Sevilla 0.11
#16 Osasuna 0.11
#17 Real Betis 0.12
#18 Levante UD 0.12
#19 Elche 0.12
#20 Barcelona 0.15
League avg
0.10
Total
7.69 npxGA from 51 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

73% inside the box

League avg 62%

From 109 of 150 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

71% allowed inside the box

League avg 62%

From 36 of 51 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

83% open play · 17% set pieces

League avg 20% set pieces

From 4.0 of 23.5 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

91% open play · 9% set pieces

League avg 20% set pieces

From 0.7 of 7.7 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Barcelona home and away xG

Barcelona per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 3 4
xG / match 4.67 3.63
xGA / match 1.15 1.05
xGD / match +3.52 +2.58
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 2.79 2.55

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Barcelona match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
4.07
xGA / match
1.09
xGD / match
+2.99
Points
21 of 21
  1. Sat 19/09 Sevilla A xG 3.47 xGA 0.40 xGD +3.07
  2. Wed 16/09 Racing de Santander H Best underlying xG 6.74 P xGA 1.98 xGD +4.76
  3. Sun 13/09 Levante UD A Weakest underlying xG 2.58 P xGA 2.42 xGD +0.16
  4. Sun 06/09 Valencia A xG 4.08 xGA 0.66 xGD +3.42
  5. Mon 31/08 Rayo Vallecano H xG 3.04 xGA 1.21 xGD +1.83
  6. Thu 27/08 Athletic Club H xG 4.23 xGA 0.25 xGD +3.98
  7. Sun 23/08 Elche A xG 4.38 P xGA 0.70 xGD +3.68

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 6.74. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Barcelona in La Liga

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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