Friday, 23/10/2026 at 21:00
19d 19h to kick-offDeportivo Alavés – Málaga
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Deportivo Alavés
- 55%
- Draw
- 29%
- Málaga
- 16%
| Deportivo Alavés | Draw | Málaga | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.83 | 3.39 | 6.26 |
- Total goals
- 2.34
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score
- 49%
One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Deportivo Alavés
55% Deportivo Alavés to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 16th
- Deportivo Alavés attack v Málaga defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 18th
- Deportivo Alavés defence v Málaga attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.18 vs -0.84
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.55 – 0.79
- Deportivo Alavés v Málaga
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 7 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Deportivo Alavés | Málaga |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.28 · 9th | 0.84 · 19th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.19 · 5th | 1.66 · 14th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.09 · 6th | -0.83 · 20th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.44 · 6th | 0.86 · 20th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.18 | -0.84 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 40% of the model's distribution.
- Deportivo Alavés clean sheet
- 42%
- Deportivo Alavés 2+ goals
- 47%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score: no
- 51%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.3%
- 1:0
- 12.6%
- 2:0
- 11.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Deportivo Alavés sample
- 20 matches
- Málaga sample
- 7 matches
- Home xG sample · Deportivo Alavés
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Málaga
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- Málaga has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.