Friday, 09/10/2026 at 21:00
5d 21h to kick-offMálaga – Espanyol
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 1 October, 10:23
What the model expects
- Málaga
- 35%
- Draw
- 32%
- Espanyol
- 33%
| Málaga | Draw | Espanyol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.87 | 3.09 | 3.05 |
- Total goals
- 2.41
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score
- 55%
One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 1 outcome.
-
Málaga
- Model
- 34.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 35.5%
- Probability gap
- −0.6 pp
- Edge
- −8.5%
- Fair odds
- 2.87
- Market odds
- 2.63 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.01
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.4%
-
Draw
- Model
- 32.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 30.0%
- Probability gap
- +2.3 pp
- Edge
- +0.4%
- Fair odds
- 3.09
- Market odds
- 3.10 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.24
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.4%
-
Espanyol
- Model
- 32.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 34.5%
- Probability gap
- −1.7 pp
- Edge
- −11.5%
- Fair odds
- 3.05
- Market odds
- 2.70 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.20
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.4%
Outcomes with value
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model can't separate them
35% Málaga to win
- Attack
- 18th vs 14th
- Málaga attack v Espanyol defence
- Defence
- 16th vs 10th
- Málaga defence v Espanyol attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.84 vs -0.35
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.22 – 1.19
- Málaga v Espanyol
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 7 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Málaga | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.84 · 19th | (better) 1.24 · 11th |
| xGA / match | 1.66 · 14th | (better) 1.36 · 11th |
| xGD / match | -0.83 · 20th | (better) -0.12 · 7th |
| xPts / match | 0.86 · 20th | (better) 1.35 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.84 | (better) -0.35 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Málaga clean sheet
- 28%
- Málaga 2+ goals
- 35%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score: no
- 45%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.7%
- 2:1
- 9.3%
- 0:0
- 9.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Málaga sample
- 7 matches
- Espanyol sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Málaga
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Espanyol
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 2 days ago · over a day old
Warnings
- Málaga has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.