Friday, 18/09/2026 at 21:00
Full timeEspanyol 1:3 Elche
Espanyol were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. Elche won 3–1. The biggest difference was Elche's attack: 1.61 xG against 1.01 projected (+0.60). Espanyol produced 1.05 xG against 1.56 projected (−0.51).
Goals
- 26' Fernando Niño Elche · 0.52 xG chance 0–1
- 29' Fernando Niño Elche · 0.18 xG chance 0–2
- 72' Víctor Chust (o.g.) Espanyol · 0.10 xG chance 1–2
- 78' Germán Valera Elche · 0.33 xG chance 1–3
The model against the result
- Espanyol
- 49%
- Draw
- 30%
- Elche
- 22% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Elche produced 0.60 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 23
- 9
- On target
- 5
- 6
- Inside the box
- 13
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.05
- 0.16
- Open play xG
- 0.88
- 1.37
- Set-piece xG
- 0.25
- 0.03
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.13 for Espanyol and 1.44 for Elche.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
32 shots · 2.53 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Espanyol
- Elche
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.28 xG created 1.32 xGA
1.18 xG created 2.17 xGA
- D 1.23 created, 0.34 conceded against Deportivo La Coruña
- L 0.70 created, 4.38 conceded against Barcelona
- L 1.03 created, 1.72 conceded against Racing de Santander
- L 2.47 created, 0.58 conceded against Real Sociedad
- D 0.84 created, 2.39 conceded against Athletic Club
- L 0.78 created, 3.61 conceded against Real Madrid
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.50 | +3.7% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | +3.2% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | +0.5% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | 48.9% | 52.2% | −3.4 pp | 2.05 |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.9% | +2.8 pp | 3.38 |
| Elche | 21.5% | 20.9% | +0.6 pp | 4.65 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol to score | 81.6% | 81.1% | +0.5 pp | 1.23 |
| Espanyol not to score | 18.4% | 18.9% | −0.5 pp | 5.43 |
| Elche to score | 66.3% | 64.5% | +1.8 pp | 1.51 |
| Elche not to score | 33.7% | 35.5% | −1.8 pp | 2.97 |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 52.0% | +3.8 pp | 1.79 |
| Both teams not to score | 44.2% | 48.0% | −3.8 pp | 2.26 |
| Espanyol 2+ goals | 47.6% | 51.5% | −3.8 pp | 2.10 |
| Espanyol at most 1 goal | 52.4% | 48.5% | +3.8 pp | 1.91 |
| Elche 2+ goals | 26.6% | 29.1% | −2.5 pp | 3.76 |
| Elche at most 1 goal | 73.4% | 70.9% | +2.5 pp | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.8% | 76.2% | +0.6 pp | 1.30 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23.2% | 23.8% | −0.6 pp | 4.31 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.4% | 52.6% | −4.2 pp | 2.07 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.6% | 47.4% | +4.2 pp | 1.94 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Espanyol sample
- 20 matches
- Elche sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 12 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.