Tuesday, 15/09/2026 at 21:30
Full timeElche 2:3 Real Madrid
Real Madrid were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was Real Madrid's attack: 3.61 xG against 1.50 projected (+2.11). Elche produced 0.78 xG against 1.12 projected (−0.34).
Goals
- 25' Matías Dituro (o.g.) Real Madrid · 0.27 xG chance 0–1
- 33' Kylian Mbappé Real Madrid · 0.63 xG chance 0–2
- 71' Abiel Osorio Elche · 0.23 xG chance 1–2
- 83' Fernando Niño Elche · 0.09 xG chance 2–2
- 90' Carlos Espí Real Madrid · 0.91 xG chance 2–3
The model against the result
- Elche
- 25%
- Draw
- 30%
- Real Madrid
- 44% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Real Madrid produced 2.11 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 21
- On target
- 3
- 5
- Inside the box
- 7
- 15
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.19
- Open play xG
- 0.86
- 3.50
- Set-piece xG
- 0.00
- 0.52
- Penalties
- —
- —
Elche's shots add up to 0.86 xG and Real Madrid's to 4.02; the published figures are 0.78 and 3.61.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
32 shots · 4.88 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Elche
- Real Madrid
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.08 xG created 1.67 xGA
- D 0.18 created, 0.58 conceded against Girona FC
- D 1.23 created, 0.34 conceded against Deportivo La Coruña
- L 0.70 created, 4.38 conceded against Barcelona
- L 1.03 created, 1.72 conceded against Racing de Santander
- L 2.47 created, 0.58 conceded against Real Sociedad
- D 0.84 created, 2.39 conceded against Athletic Club
2.74 xG created 0.88 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged2 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid not to score | 15.00 | +194.3% | Lost |
| Elche to win | 11.00 | +179.3% | Lost |
| Real Madrid at most 1 goal | 4.33 | +135.4% | Lost |
| Draw | 7.00 | +111.3% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 8.00 | +76.2% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | +70.1% | Lost |
| Elche 2+ goals | 4.00 | +24.2% | Won |
| Elche to score | 1.62 | +13.7% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | 25.4% | 8.6% | +16.8 pp | 3.94 |
| Draw | 30.2% | 13.6% | +16.6 pp | 3.31 |
| Real Madrid | 44.4% | 77.8% | −33.4 pp | 2.25 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche to score | 70.4% | 57.7% | +12.7 pp | 1.42 |
| Elche not to score | 29.6% | 42.3% | −12.7 pp | 3.38 |
| Real Madrid to score | 80.4% | 93.6% | −13.2 pp | 1.24 |
| Real Madrid not to score | 19.6% | 6.4% | +13.2 pp | 5.10 |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | 54.7% | +3.7 pp | 1.71 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.6% | 45.3% | −3.7 pp | 2.40 |
| Elche 2+ goals | 31.0% | 23.4% | +7.6 pp | 3.22 |
| Elche at most 1 goal | 69.0% | 76.6% | −7.6 pp | 1.45 |
| Real Madrid 2+ goals | 45.7% | 78.3% | −32.6 pp | 2.19 |
| Real Madrid at most 1 goal | 54.3% | 21.7% | +32.6 pp | 1.84 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.0% | 88.1% | −10.1 pp | 1.28 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.0% | 11.9% | +10.1 pp | 4.54 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 71.8% | −21.9 pp | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 28.2% | +21.9 pp | 2.00 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Elche sample
- 20 matches
- Real Madrid sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 13 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 13 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.