Racing de Santander 2:1 Deportivo Alavés: xG & match report · La Liga

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 14:00

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Match report · La Liga

Racing de Santander Home 2.01 xG · 11 shots

Deportivo Alavés Away 1.98 xG · 16 shots

21 The chances were evenly matched

Deportivo Alavés were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. Racing de Santander won 2–1. The biggest difference was Racing de Santander's attack: 2.01 xG against 1.17 projected (+0.84). Deportivo Alavés produced 1.98 xG against 1.24 projected (+0.74).

Goals

18' Ville Koski Deportivo Alavés · 0.81 xG chance 0–1
38' Yassir Zabiri Racing de Santander · 0.40 xG chance 1–1
53' Yassir Zabiri Racing de Santander · 0.62 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Racing de Santander: 32% What happened
Draw: 32%
Deportivo Alavés: 36%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Racing de Santander 1.17 2.01 +0.84

Deportivo Alavés 1.24 1.98 +0.74

Racing de Santander produced 0.84 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Racing de Santander Deportivo Alavés

Shots: 11; 16
On target: 4; 8
Inside the box: 9; 10
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.15
Open play xG: 1.40; 0.91
Set-piece xG: 0.08; 1.42
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.46 for Racing de Santander and 2.35 for Deportivo Alavés.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 3.81 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Racing de Santander
Deportivo Alavés
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Racing de Santander

1.35 xG created 1.14 xGA

D 1.87 created, 0.67 conceded against Villarreal
L 1.31 created, 1.24 conceded against Getafe
W 1.72 created, 1.03 conceded against Elche
L 0.48 created, 1.61 conceded against Rayo Vallecano

Deportivo Alavés

1.49 xG created 0.97 xGA

W 1.46 created, 0.45 conceded against Real Oviedo
L 1.63 created, 1.34 conceded against Rayo Vallecano
W 1.93 created, 0.24 conceded against Getafe
D 2.00 created, 0.42 conceded against Rayo Vallecano
W 0.73 created, 1.74 conceded against Villarreal
W 1.20 created, 1.64 conceded against Osasuna

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Racing de Santander against Deportivo Alavés before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+17.2%	Lost
Racing de Santander at most 1 goal	1.73	+15.4%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.33	+13.6%	Lost
Draw	3.50	+13.2%	Lost
Racing de Santander not to score	4.00	+12.6%	Lost
Both teams not to score	2.25	+1.1%	Lost
Deportivo Alavés at most 1 goal	1.57	+0.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Racing de Santander	32.1%	38.6%	−6.5 pp	3.12
Draw	32.4%	27.0%	+5.3 pp	3.09
Deportivo Alavés	35.6%	34.4%	+1.2 pp	2.81

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Racing de Santander to score	71.9%	76.6%	−4.7 pp	1.39
Racing de Santander not to score	28.1%	23.4%	+4.7 pp	3.55
Deportivo Alavés to score	74.0%	75.0%	−1.0 pp	1.35
Deportivo Alavés not to score	26.0%	25.0%	+1.0 pp	3.84
Both teams to score	55.1%	58.9%	−3.8 pp	1.82
Both teams not to score	44.9%	41.1%	+3.8 pp	2.23
Racing de Santander 2+ goals	33.2%	46.3%	−13.1 pp	3.01
Racing de Santander at most 1 goal	66.8%	53.7%	+13.1 pp	1.50
Deportivo Alavés 2+ goals	35.8%	41.1%	−5.3 pp	2.79
Deportivo Alavés at most 1 goal	64.2%	58.9%	+5.3 pp	1.56
Over 1.5 goals	73.8%	78.0%	−4.2 pp	1.36
Under 1.5 goals	26.2%	22.0%	+4.2 pp	3.81
Over 2.5 goals	44.2%	54.9%	−10.7 pp	2.26
Under 2.5 goals	55.8%	45.1%	+10.7 pp	1.79

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Racing de Santander sample: 4 matches
Deportivo Alavés sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Warnings

Racing de Santander has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.