Wednesday, 16/09/2026 at 21:30
Kicked offLevante UD – Athletic Club
Model updated 16 September, 09:49 Best odds updated 16 September, 09:49
What the model expects
- Levante UD
- 38%
- Draw
- 31%
- Athletic Club
- 32%
| Levante UD | Draw | Athletic Club | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.66 | 3.24 | 3.17 |
- Total goals
- 2.62
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 7 outcomes.
-
Levante UD
- Model
- 37.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 27.9%
- Probability gap
- +9.7 pp
- Edge
- +27.8%
- Fair odds
- 2.66
- Market odds
- 3.40 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.79
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.6%
-
Draw
- Model
- 30.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 27.1%
- Probability gap
- +3.8 pp
- Edge
- +8.1%
- Fair odds
- 3.24
- Market odds
- 3.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.40
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.6%
-
Athletic Club
- Model
- 31.5%
- Market, margin removed
- 45.1%
- Probability gap
- −13.6 pp
- Edge
- −33.8%
- Fair odds
- 3.17
- Market odds
- 2.10 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.33
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.6%
Outcomes with value
Levante UD to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Levante UD 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Athletic Club not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Athletic Club at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Levante UD to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Best opportunity
Levante UD to win
Model 37.6% vs. bookmaker 27.9%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Levante UD
38% Levante UD to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 1st
- Levante UD attack v Athletic Club defence
- Defence
- 18th vs 7th
- Levante UD defence v Athletic Club attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.02 vs -0.17
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.37 – 1.25
- Levante UD v Athletic Club
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Levante UD | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.33 · 8th | (better) 1.64 · 5th |
| xGA / match | 2.08 · 19th | (better) 1.36 · 10th |
| xGD / match | -0.75 · 16th | (better) +0.28 · 5th |
| xPts / match | 1.04 · 17th | (better) 1.82 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.02 | -0.17 |
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Levante UD sample
- 20 matches
- Athletic Club sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Levante UD
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Athletic Club
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 16/09/2026 at 09:49
- Odds updated
- 17 days ago · over a day old
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.