CF Estrela Amadora's recorded results for 2026/2027, newest first, with the available xG behind each score. Compare outcomes with the chances created and conceded, then open a match for more detail.
Showing 4 of 4 matching results
7 played this season
4 available results · Last 10 requested
Reset filtersResults
- Wins – draws – losses (W–D–L)
- 1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss
5 pts 6–7 goals −1 GD
Chances
- Provider xG / xGA
- 3.36 – 7.58
- 0.84 – 1.90 per match
- xGD
- -4.22
- -1.06 per match
- xG record
- 0 with the chances, 1 with even chances, 3 against them
Small sample: 4 matches.
Comparable xG: 4 of 4 completed results.
Points vs xPts Model
5 pts 2.7 xPts
+2.3 vs xPts
Match points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before deductions or sanctions.
Points vs xPts uses only matches with available xPts on both sides of the comparison.
What the results say
Last 10 · Liga Portugal · Home
CF Estrela Amadora's mixed record runs ahead of the chances they created and conceded. They out-created the opponent in 0 of 4 matches, for −4.22 xG difference overall on 3.36–7.58. Their points total of 5 sits 2.3 above the model's 2.7 xPts, so the results have clearly outrun the chances.
Points minus xPts, match by match
Over these 4 results CF Estrela Amadora are 2.30 points above their xPts. The gap was widest at +2.65, against Sporting Braga on Thu 10/09.
- Points
- 5
- xPts
- 2.70
- Gap
- +2.30
- This match
- Match gap
- Running gap
| Date | Opponent | Points | xPts | Match gap | Running gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 08/08 | Sporting | 1 | 0.40 | +0.60 | +0.60 |
| Sat 05/09 | Famalicão | 1 | 0.71 | +0.29 | +0.89 |
| Thu 10/09 | Sporting Braga | 3 | 1.24 | +1.76 | +2.65 |
| Sun 20/09 | Académico Viseu FC | 0 | 0.35 | -0.35 | +2.30 |
Scores and xG
CF Estrela Amadora first
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Match analysis →
Why this label · Académico Viseu FC, Sun 20/09
The team lost and recorded less xG than its opponent. The direction of the result aligns with the chance difference.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 0
- Post-match model xPts
- 0.36
- Points minus xPts
- -0.36
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · Sporting Braga, Thu 10/09
The team won, while the chance difference was approximately even. The outcome was stronger than that difference alone suggests.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 3
- Post-match model xPts
- 1.24
- Points minus xPts
- +1.76
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · Famalicão, Sat 05/09
The match was drawn although the team recorded less xG. The outcome was stronger than that chance difference suggests.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 1
- Post-match model xPts
- 0.70
- Points minus xPts
- +0.30
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · Sporting, Sat 08/08
The match was drawn although the team recorded less xG. The outcome was stronger than that chance difference suggests.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 1
- Post-match model xPts
- 0.40
- Points minus xPts
- +0.60
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated →
Reading these results
xG is the provider's estimate of chances created; xGA is the opponent's xG. xGD is the difference. Labels compare the recorded outcome with those chances; they are interpretations, not judgments about fairness.
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
How each figure on this page is read
Every xG bar is drawn on one fixed scale: full width is 7.20 xG, the same on every card and in every window, so two cards can be compared by eye. A rarer match above that is capped with a hatched end, and the figure beside the bar still gives its value.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
Goal difference minus xGD says how far a scoreline finished from the chances behind it: a 4:2 won off level chances ran nearly two goals ahead of them. The two callouts under the list name the match that ran furthest each way, and a direction with no result a full goal clear of the chances gets no card rather than a card built from a rounding.
Windows count back from the most recent recorded match, and only matches attached to this club record are included. Home and away mean the provider-designated side, not a verified physical venue. Scores describe recorded play, not shootout advancement. Unverified periods receive no chance comparison.