xgEdge

Expected goals

Marítimo expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Liga Portugal · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

Marítimo's attacking and defensive expected goals in Liga Portugal 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Marítimo xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
0.94 xG per match
#14/18
Attack (xG per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Benfica 2.32
#2 FC Porto 2.26
#3 Sporting 2.01
#4 Vitória SC 1.77
#5 FC Alverca 1.40
#6 Santa Clara 1.35
#7 Gil Vicente 1.31
#8 Académico Viseu FC 1.30
#9 Sporting Braga 1.25
#10 FC Arouca 1.24
#11 CF Estrela Amadora 1.23
#12 CD Nacional 1.15
#13 Famalicão 0.99
#14 Marítimo 0.94
#15 Casa Pia 0.89
#16 Estoril Praia 0.85
#17 Moreirense 0.68
#18 Rio Ave 0.54
League avg
1.31
Total
6.58 7 matches
Defence
1.32 xGA per match
#9/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Sporting Braga 0.65
#2 Benfica 0.65
#3 Santa Clara 0.69
#4 Vitória SC 0.77
#5 Sporting 0.79
#6 Gil Vicente 0.88
#7 FC Porto 0.98
#8 Famalicão 1.25
#9 Marítimo 1.32
#10 FC Arouca 1.38
#11 Estoril Praia 1.62
#12 CF Estrela Amadora 1.63
#13 Académico Viseu FC 1.71
#14 Moreirense 1.73
#15 FC Alverca 1.74
#16 Casa Pia 1.77
#17 CD Nacional 1.87
#18 Rio Ave 1.92
League avg
1.31
Total
9.23 7 matches
xG difference
-0.38 xGD per match
#11/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Benfica +1.66
#2 FC Porto +1.28
#3 Sporting +1.22
#4 Vitória SC +0.99
#5 Santa Clara +0.67
#6 Sporting Braga +0.60
#7 Gil Vicente +0.43
#8 FC Arouca -0.14
#9 Famalicão -0.26
#10 FC Alverca -0.34
#11 Marítimo -0.38
#12 CF Estrela Amadora -0.40
#13 Académico Viseu FC -0.41
#14 CD Nacional -0.72
#15 Estoril Praia -0.76
#16 Casa Pia -0.87
#17 Moreirense -1.06
#18 Rio Ave -1.38
League avg
0.00
Total
-2.65 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.07 xPts per match
#12/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Benfica 2.40
#2 FC Porto 2.22
#3 Sporting 2.17
#4 Vitória SC 1.96
#5 Santa Clara 1.93
#6 Sporting Braga 1.83
#7 Gil Vicente 1.76
#8 FC Arouca 1.37
#9 Famalicão 1.18
#10 CF Estrela Amadora 1.13
#11 Académico Viseu FC 1.08
#12 Marítimo 1.07
#13 CD Nacional 1.06
#14 FC Alverca 1.06
#15 Casa Pia 0.91
#16 Estoril Praia 0.82
#17 Moreirense 0.68
#18 Rio Ave 0.46
League avg
1.39
Total
7.50 vs 8 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Marítimo's underlying numbers sit close to the Liga Portugal average. They rank #11 for xG difference at -0.38 per match, from low shot volume and low chance quality. Their 8 goals are 1.42 above 6.58 xG, while 8 points are 0.50 above 7.50 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.80 xG from penalties
8 6.58 +1.42 scored 1.42 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
12 9.23 +2.77 conceded 2.77 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
8 7.50 +0.50 0.50 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Marítimo are 1.42 goals above their xG after 7 matches.

Goals
8
xG
6.58
Gap
+1.42
Sat 08/08 Sun 16/08 Sat 22/08 Sat 29/08 Sat 05/09 Mon 14/09 Sat 19/09 -1 0 +1 +2 -0.28 +0.11 +0.83 +1.16 +1.04 +1.28 +1.42 -0.28 +0.39 +0.72 +0.33 -0.12 +0.24 +0.14 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Marítimo: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 08/08 Casa Pia 1 1.28 -0.28 -0.28
Sun 16/08 Famalicão 2 1.61 +0.39 +0.11
Sat 22/08 Académico Viseu FC 2 1.28 +0.72 +0.83
Sat 29/08 FC Arouca 1 0.67 +0.33 +1.16
Sat 05/09 Benfica 0 0.12 -0.12 +1.04
Mon 14/09 Moreirense 1 0.76 +0.24 +1.28
Sat 19/09 Gil Vicente 1 0.86 +0.14 +1.42

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Marítimo xG trend

Current form -0.55 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 2 of 7 matches. The worst was against Académico Viseu FC on Sat 22/08 (-1.35).

npxG · last 6
0.76
npxGA · last 6
1.30
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 +0.61 Sat 08/08 +1.02 Sun 16/08 -1.35 Sat 22/08 -0.98 Sat 29/08 -1.17 Sat 05/09 -0.45 Mon 14/09 -0.34 Sat 19/09 -0.38 season avg
Marítimo: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 08/08 Casa Pia 1.25 0.64 +0.61 +0.61
Sun 16/08 Famalicão 1.61 0.59 +1.02 +0.82
Sat 22/08 Académico Viseu FC 0.50 1.85 -1.35 +0.09
Sat 29/08 FC Arouca 0.67 1.65 -0.98 -0.18
Sat 05/09 Benfica 0.13 1.30 -1.17 -0.37
Mon 14/09 Moreirense 0.76 1.21 -0.45 -0.39
Sat 19/09 Gil Vicente 0.86 1.20 -0.34 -0.38

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.83 npxG and 1.21 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 8 hardest of 18 in Liga Portugal
−0.02 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
tied number 7 hardest of 18 in Liga Portugal
+0.03 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.02 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · tied number 8 hardest of 18

  1. Gil Vicente Away +0.06
  2. Moreirense Away −0.54
  3. Benfica Home +0.79
  4. FC Arouca Away −0.08
  5. Académico Viseu FC Home −0.07
  6. Famalicão Away +0.02
  7. Casa Pia Home −0.35

Last 5

+0.03 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 7 hardest of 18

  1. Gil Vicente Away +0.06
  2. Moreirense Away −0.54
  3. Benfica Home +0.79
  4. FC Arouca Away −0.08
  5. Académico Viseu FC Home −0.07

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Marítimo shots and chance quality

Low volume, low quality. Marítimo take 10.4 shots a match (league 12.2) at 0.08 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #13 in Liga Portugal for volume and #13 for quality. 70% of their shots come from inside the box (league 63%), and set pieces produce 36% of their npxG (league 22%).

Attack

Shot volume
10.4 shots per match
#13/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club shots per match
=1 Benfica 19.1
=1 Vitória SC 19.1
#3 FC Porto 16.0
#4 Gil Vicente 14.0
#5 Sporting 13.4
=6 CF Estrela Amadora 13.1
=6 Santa Clara 13.1
#8 Estoril Praia 12.7
#9 Sporting Braga 12.5
#10 FC Alverca 11.9
#11 FC Arouca 10.9
#12 CD Nacional 10.7
#13 Marítimo 10.4
#14 Casa Pia 10.3
#15 Famalicão 9.6
#16 Académico Viseu FC 9.3
#17 Moreirense 7.3
#18 Rio Ave 7.1
League avg
12.2
Total
73 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.08 npxG per shot
#13/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Académico Viseu FC 0.15
#2 Sporting 0.14
#3 FC Porto 0.12
#4 Benfica 0.11
#5 FC Alverca 0.11
#6 FC Arouca 0.11
#7 CD Nacional 0.10
#8 Sporting Braga 0.10
#9 Santa Clara 0.10
#10 Famalicão 0.09
#11 CF Estrela Amadora 0.09
#12 Vitória SC 0.09
#13 Marítimo 0.08
#14 Moreirense 0.08
#15 Gil Vicente 0.07
#16 Casa Pia 0.07
#17 Estoril Praia 0.06
#18 Rio Ave 0.06
League avg
0.10
Total
5.78 npxG from 73 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
13.4 shots per match
#11/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Vitória SC 7.1
#2 Benfica 7.6
#3 Santa Clara 8.1
#4 Sporting 8.6
#5 Sporting Braga 8.7
#6 Gil Vicente 9.8
#7 FC Porto 10.7
#8 CF Estrela Amadora 11.6
#9 Famalicão 12.0
#10 FC Alverca 12.1
#11 Marítimo 13.4
#12 Estoril Praia 13.9
#13 FC Arouca 14.9
#14 CD Nacional 15.1
=15 Casa Pia 15.7
=15 Moreirense 15.7
#17 Rio Ave 16.9
#18 Académico Viseu FC 17.6
League avg
12.2
Total
94 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.09 npxGA per shot
#8/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Sporting Braga 0.06
#2 Santa Clara 0.07
#3 Gil Vicente 0.08
#4 Sporting 0.08
#5 FC Porto 0.08
#6 Académico Viseu FC 0.08
#7 Benfica 0.09
#8 Marítimo 0.09
#9 FC Arouca 0.09
#10 Famalicão 0.10
#11 Casa Pia 0.10
#12 Moreirense 0.10
#13 CD Nacional 0.10
#14 Estoril Praia 0.11
#15 Rio Ave 0.11
#16 Vitória SC 0.11
#17 CF Estrela Amadora 0.12
#18 FC Alverca 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
8.44 npxGA from 94 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

70% inside the box

League avg 63%

From 51 of 73 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

64% allowed inside the box

League avg 63%

From 60 of 94 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

64% open play · 36% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 2.1 of 5.7 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

63% open play · 37% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 3.1 of 8.5 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Marítimo home and away xG

Marítimo per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 3 4
xG / match 0.89 0.98
xGA / match 1.26 1.36
xGD / match -0.37 -0.39
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.06 1.08

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Marítimo match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
0.94
xGA / match
1.32
xGD / match
-0.38
Points
8 of 21
  1. Sat 19/09 Gil Vicente A xG 0.86 xGA 1.20 xGD -0.34
  2. Mon 14/09 Moreirense A Weakest underlying xG 0.76 xGA 2.00 P xGD -1.24
  3. Sat 05/09 Benfica H xG 0.12 xGA 1.31 xGD -1.19
  4. Sat 29/08 FC Arouca A xG 0.67 xGA 1.65 xGD -0.98
  5. Sat 22/08 Académico Viseu FC H xG 1.28 P xGA 1.84 xGD -0.56
  6. Sun 16/08 Famalicão A Best underlying xG 1.61 xGA 0.59 xGD +1.02
  7. Sat 08/08 Casa Pia H xG 1.28 xGA 0.64 xGD +0.64

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Marítimo in Liga Portugal

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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