xgEdge

Every Ligue 1 match still to be played this season, soonest first, with the xG the model projects for each side and its home, draw and away probabilities.

  • Home
  • Draw
  • Away
Tight Within 3 points either way Clear favourite 55% or more Form, oldest → newest: W D L

Saturday, 27/02/2027

2 matches
  • Olympique Lyonnais Olympique Lyonnais, last league results, oldest first: Win, Draw, Win, Draw, Win
    Toulouse Toulouse, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Draw, Loss, Draw, Win
    Projected xG 1.59 – 1.25
    →
  • Le Mans Le Mans, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Loss, Draw, Draw, Win
    Paris FC Paris FC, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Win, Win, Draw, Win
    Projected xG 1.26 – 1.25
    Tight
    →

Sunday, 28/02/2027

1 match
  • Paris Saint-Germain Paris Saint-Germain, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Draw, Loss, Win, Win
    RC Lens RC Lens, last league results, oldest first: Win, Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss
    Projected xG 2.11 – 1.26
    Clear favourite
    →

Saturday, 06/03/2027

8 matches
  • Le Havre Le Havre, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Draw, Loss, Draw, Loss
    Nice Nice, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Loss, Draw, Loss, Win
    Projected xG 1.52 – 1.12
    →
  • RC Lens RC Lens, last league results, oldest first: Win, Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss
    RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Win, Win, Draw, Loss
    Projected xG 2.06 – 1.13
    Clear favourite
    →
  • Toulouse Toulouse, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Draw, Loss, Draw, Win
    Le Mans Le Mans, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Loss, Draw, Draw, Win
    Projected xG 1.74 – 1.30
    →
  • Troyes Troyes, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Win, Loss, Loss, Loss
    Lorient Lorient, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Loss, Win, Draw, Loss
    Projected xG 1.31 – 1.21
    →
  • Angers Angers, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Win, Loss, Draw, Win
    Auxerre Auxerre, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Loss, Win, Win
    Projected xG 1.28 – 1.11
    →
  • AS Monaco AS Monaco, last league results, oldest first: Win, Win, Win, Draw, Win
    Olympique Lyonnais Olympique Lyonnais, last league results, oldest first: Win, Draw, Win, Draw, Win
    Projected xG 1.24 – 1.13
    →
  • Paris FC Paris FC, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Win, Win, Draw, Win
    Stade Brestois Stade Brestois, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Draw, Win, Loss, Loss
    Projected xG 1.31 – 1.12
    →
  • Lille Lille, last league results, oldest first: Win, Draw, Win, Win, Loss
    Olympique de Marseille Olympique de Marseille, last league results, oldest first: Win, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss
    Projected xG 1.58 – 1.19
    →

Saturday, 13/03/2027

9 matches
  • Nice Nice, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Loss, Draw, Loss, Win
    Toulouse Toulouse, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Draw, Loss, Draw, Win
    Projected xG 1.38 – 1.50
    →
  • Paris FC Paris FC, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Win, Win, Draw, Win
    Lorient Lorient, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Loss, Win, Draw, Loss
    Projected xG 1.23 – 0.87
    →
  • RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Win, Win, Draw, Loss
    Angers Angers, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Win, Loss, Draw, Win
    Projected xG 1.47 – 1.15
    →
  • Le Mans Le Mans, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Loss, Draw, Draw, Win
    Stade Rennais Stade Rennais, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Win, Win, Win, Loss
    Projected xG 1.61 – 1.47
    →
  • Stade Brestois Stade Brestois, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Draw, Win, Loss, Loss
    Lille Lille, last league results, oldest first: Win, Draw, Win, Win, Loss
    Projected xG 1.30 – 1.09
    →
  • Le Havre Le Havre, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Draw, Loss, Draw, Loss
    RC Lens RC Lens, last league results, oldest first: Win, Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss
    Projected xG 1.38 – 1.67
    →
  • Olympique de Marseille Olympique de Marseille, last league results, oldest first: Win, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss
    AS Monaco AS Monaco, last league results, oldest first: Win, Win, Win, Draw, Win
    Projected xG 1.50 – 1.32
    →
  • Auxerre Auxerre, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Loss, Win, Win
    Paris Saint-Germain Paris Saint-Germain, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Draw, Loss, Win, Win
    Projected xG 0.95 – 1.81
    Clear favourite
    →
  • Olympique Lyonnais Olympique Lyonnais, last league results, oldest first: Win, Draw, Win, Draw, Win
    Troyes Troyes, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Win, Loss, Loss, Loss
    Projected xG 1.80 – 1.14
    →

Saturday, 20/03/2027

8 matches
  • Angers Angers, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Win, Loss, Draw, Win
    Le Mans Le Mans, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Loss, Draw, Draw, Win
    Projected xG 1.36 – 1.32
    Tight
    →
  • Toulouse Toulouse, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Draw, Loss, Draw, Win
    Stade Brestois Stade Brestois, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Draw, Win, Loss, Loss
    Projected xG 1.53 – 1.38
    →
  • Troyes Troyes, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Win, Loss, Loss, Loss
    Auxerre Auxerre, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Loss, Win, Win
    Projected xG 1.50 – 1.24
    →
  • Stade Rennais Stade Rennais, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Win, Win, Win, Loss
    Paris FC Paris FC, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Win, Win, Draw, Win
    Projected xG 1.42 – 1.31
    →
  • AS Monaco AS Monaco, last league results, oldest first: Win, Win, Win, Draw, Win
    Le Havre Le Havre, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Draw, Loss, Draw, Loss
    Projected xG 1.42 – 1.07
    →
  • Paris Saint-Germain Paris Saint-Germain, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Draw, Loss, Win, Win
    RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Win, Win, Draw, Loss
    Projected xG 2.30 – 0.89
    Clear favourite
    →
  • RC Lens RC Lens, last league results, oldest first: Win, Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss
    Lille Lille, last league results, oldest first: Win, Draw, Win, Win, Loss
    Projected xG 1.63 – 1.14
    →
  • Lorient Lorient, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Loss, Win, Draw, Loss
    Nice Nice, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Loss, Draw, Loss, Win
    Projected xG 1.29 – 0.96
    →

Sunday, 21/03/2027

1 match
  • Olympique de Marseille Olympique de Marseille, last league results, oldest first: Win, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss
    Olympique Lyonnais Olympique Lyonnais, last league results, oldest first: Win, Draw, Win, Draw, Win
    Projected xG 1.51 – 1.43
    Tight
    →

Saturday, 03/04/2027

9 matches
  • Le Havre Le Havre, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Draw, Loss, Draw, Loss
    Troyes Troyes, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Win, Loss, Loss, Loss
    Projected xG 1.70 – 1.30
    →
  • Angers Angers, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Win, Loss, Draw, Win
    AS Monaco AS Monaco, last league results, oldest first: Win, Win, Win, Draw, Win
    Projected xG 1.15 – 1.25
    →
  • Le Mans Le Mans, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Loss, Draw, Draw, Win
    Olympique de Marseille Olympique de Marseille, last league results, oldest first: Win, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss
    Projected xG 1.66 – 1.49
    →
  • Auxerre Auxerre, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Loss, Win, Win
    RC Lens RC Lens, last league results, oldest first: Win, Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss
    Projected xG 1.20 – 1.62
    →
  • Lille Lille, last league results, oldest first: Win, Draw, Win, Win, Loss
    Stade Rennais Stade Rennais, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Win, Win, Win, Loss
    Projected xG 1.54 – 1.17
    →
  • Stade Brestois Stade Brestois, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Draw, Win, Loss, Loss
    Lorient Lorient, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Loss, Win, Draw, Loss
    Projected xG 1.35 – 0.93
    →
  • RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Win, Win, Draw, Loss
    Toulouse Toulouse, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Draw, Loss, Draw, Win
    Projected xG 1.45 – 1.48
    Tight
    →
  • Paris FC Paris FC, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Win, Win, Draw, Win
    Paris Saint-Germain Paris Saint-Germain, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Draw, Loss, Win, Win
    Projected xG 1.09 – 1.56
    →
  • Nice Nice, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Loss, Draw, Loss, Win
    Olympique Lyonnais Olympique Lyonnais, last league results, oldest first: Win, Draw, Win, Draw, Win
    Projected xG 1.17 – 1.36
    →

Saturday, 10/04/2027

9 matches
  • Lorient Lorient, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Loss, Win, Draw, Loss
    RC Lens RC Lens, last league results, oldest first: Win, Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss
    Projected xG 1.17 – 1.42
    →
  • Olympique de Marseille Olympique de Marseille, last league results, oldest first: Win, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss
    Stade Brestois Stade Brestois, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Draw, Win, Loss, Loss
    Projected xG 1.55 – 1.48
    →
  • AS Monaco AS Monaco, last league results, oldest first: Win, Win, Win, Draw, Win
    Stade Rennais Stade Rennais, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Win, Win, Win, Loss
    Projected xG 1.53 – 1.25
    →
  • Troyes Troyes, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Win, Loss, Loss, Loss
    Angers Angers, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Win, Loss, Draw, Win
    Projected xG 1.61 – 1.30
    →
  • Paris Saint-Germain Paris Saint-Germain, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Draw, Loss, Win, Win
    Le Havre Le Havre, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Draw, Loss, Draw, Loss
    Projected xG 2.21 – 0.92
    Clear favourite
    →
  • Olympique Lyonnais Olympique Lyonnais, last league results, oldest first: Win, Draw, Win, Draw, Win
    RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Win, Win, Draw, Loss
    Projected xG 1.60 – 1.04
    →
  • Le Mans Le Mans, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Loss, Draw, Draw, Win
    Auxerre Auxerre, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Loss, Win, Win
    Projected xG 1.45 – 1.09
    →
  • Lille Lille, last league results, oldest first: Win, Draw, Win, Win, Loss
    Toulouse Toulouse, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Draw, Loss, Draw, Win
    Projected xG 1.47 – 1.17
    →
  • Nice Nice, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Loss, Draw, Loss, Win
    Paris FC Paris FC, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Win, Win, Draw, Win
    Projected xG 1.12 – 1.28
    →

Saturday, 17/04/2027

3 matches
  • Auxerre Auxerre, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Loss, Win, Win
    Lorient Lorient, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Loss, Win, Draw, Loss
    Projected xG 1.07 – 1.00
    Tight
    →
  • Stade Brestois Stade Brestois, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Draw, Win, Loss, Loss
    Le Mans Le Mans, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Loss, Draw, Draw, Win
    Projected xG 1.64 – 1.14
    →
  • AS Monaco AS Monaco, last league results, oldest first: Win, Win, Win, Draw, Win
    RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Win, Win, Draw, Loss
    Projected xG 1.48 – 1.04
    →

Probabilities and projected xG are model estimates, rounded so the three add to 100. They read shot quality over recent matches and know nothing about injuries, suspensions or motivation.