Ferencváros TC 2:2 Újpest: xG & match report · NB I (Hungary)

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 17:45

Full time

Match report · NB I (Hungary)

Ferencváros TC Home 3.00 xG

Újpest Away 2.82 xG

22 The chances were evenly matched

Ferencváros TC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 60%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Újpest's attack: 2.82 xG against 1.11 projected (+1.71). Ferencváros TC produced 3.00 xG against 2.13 projected (+0.87).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Ferencváros TC: 60%
Draw: 23% What happened
Újpest: 16%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Ferencváros TC 2.13 3.00 +0.87

Újpest 1.11 2.82 +1.71

Újpest produced 1.71 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Ferencváros TC Újpest

Shots: 19; 10
On target: 6; 4
Inside the box: 13; 6
xG per shot: 0.16; 0.28

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Ferencváros TC

1.88 xG created 1.07 xGA

L 1.73 created, 1.93 conceded against ETO FC Győr
W 2.35 created, 0.78 conceded against Paksi FC
W 1.44 created, 0.69 conceded against Újpest
W 1.70 created, 0.93 conceded against Zalaegerszegi TE
W 2.11 created, 1.36 conceded against Zalaegerszegi TE
W 1.95 created, 0.73 conceded against Puskás Akadémia

Újpest

1.96 xG created 1.96 xGA

L 1.07 created, 2.57 conceded against Debreceni VSC
W 2.09 created, 2.24 conceded against Debreceni VSC
W 2.89 created, 0.65 conceded against Kisvárda FC
D 0.97 created, 2.49 conceded against MTK Budapest
L 2.12 created, 2.22 conceded against Paksi FC
W 2.64 created, 1.56 conceded against Vasas

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Ferencváros TC: 2 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost

Won
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Ferencváros TC against Újpest before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	4.75	+11.1%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	3.10	+8.3%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.67	+7.6%	Won
Újpest to win	6.50	+4.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Ferencváros TC	60.5%	67.3%	−6.8 pp	1.65
Draw	23.4%	18.9%	+4.5 pp	4.27
Újpest	16.1%	13.8%	+2.3 pp	6.19

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	64.5%	55.7%	+8.8 pp	1.55
Both teams not to score	35.5%	44.3%	−8.8 pp	2.82
Over 1.5 goals	87.0%	85.4%	+1.6 pp	1.15
Under 1.5 goals	13.0%	14.6%	−1.6 pp	7.70
Over 2.5 goals	65.1%	69.4%	−4.4 pp	1.54
Under 2.5 goals	34.9%	30.6%	+4.4 pp	2.86

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Ferencváros TC sample: 20 matches
Újpest sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.