MTK Budapest 1:2 Kisvárda FC: xG & match report · NB I (Hungary)

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 17:30

Full time

Match report · NB I (Hungary)

MTK Budapest Home 3.31 xG

Kisvárda FC Away 0.73 xG

12 The result went against the chances

MTK Budapest were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 50%. Kisvárda FC won 2–1. The biggest difference was MTK Budapest's attack: 3.31 xG against 1.96 projected (+1.35). Kisvárda FC produced 0.73 xG against 1.37 projected (−0.64).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

MTK Budapest: 50%
Draw: 26%
Kisvárda FC: 24% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

MTK Budapest 1.96 3.31 +1.35

Kisvárda FC 1.37 0.73 -0.64

MTK Budapest produced 1.35 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

MTK Budapest Kisvárda FC

Shots: 25; 10
On target: 10; 4
Inside the box: 12; 6
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.07

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

MTK Budapest

2.03 xG created 2.01 xGA

D 1.83 created, 1.81 conceded against Nyiregyháza Spartacus
D 2.98 created, 2.09 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
L 1.70 created, 3.63 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
D 2.49 created, 0.97 conceded against Újpest
W 1.40 created, 2.09 conceded against Nyiregyháza Spartacus
D 1.79 created, 1.44 conceded against Debreceni VSC

Kisvárda FC

1.28 xG created 2.05 xGA

L 0.32 created, 0.52 conceded against Kazincbarcikai SC
L 1.38 created, 2.19 conceded against ETO FC Győr
W 2.54 created, 2.17 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
L 0.65 created, 2.89 conceded against Újpest
L 0.79 created, 2.86 conceded against Nyiregyháza Spartacus
D 2.00 created, 1.68 conceded against ETO FC Győr

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

MTK Budapest: 3 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged3 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on MTK Budapest against Kisvárda FC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.53	+6.3%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.57	+4.7%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.17	+2.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
MTK Budapest	50.3%	51.0%	−0.7 pp	1.99
Draw	25.5%	24.8%	+0.7 pp	3.92
Kisvárda FC	24.2%	24.1%	+0.0 pp	4.14

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	69.3%	60.8%	+8.5 pp	1.44
Both teams not to score	30.7%	39.2%	−8.5 pp	3.26
Over 1.5 goals	87.9%	81.1%	+6.8 pp	1.14
Under 1.5 goals	12.1%	18.9%	−6.8 pp	8.27
Over 2.5 goals	66.7%	59.9%	+6.7 pp	1.50
Under 2.5 goals	33.3%	40.1%	−6.7 pp	3.00

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
MTK Budapest sample: 20 matches
Kisvárda FC sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.