Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 14:45
Full timeNyiregyháza Spartacus 1:1 Paksi FC
Nyiregyháza Spartacus were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Nyiregyháza Spartacus's attack: 3.96 xG against 2.07 projected (+1.89). Paksi FC produced 0.68 xG against 1.69 projected (−1.01).
The model against the result
- Nyiregyháza Spartacus
- 46%
- Draw
- 24% What happened
- Paksi FC
- 30%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Nyiregyháza Spartacus produced 1.89 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 21
- 10
- On target
- 4
- 5
- Inside the box
- 15
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.19
- 0.07
Recent form
2.23 xG created 1.43 xGA
- W 1.37 created, 1.04 conceded against Zalaegerszegi TE
- D 1.81 created, 1.83 conceded against MTK Budapest
- D 3.40 created, 1.14 conceded against Kazincbarcikai SC
- L 1.87 created, 2.37 conceded against ETO FC Győr
- W 2.86 created, 0.79 conceded against Kisvárda FC
- L 2.09 created, 1.40 conceded against MTK Budapest
2.16 xG created 2.00 xGA
- W 2.03 created, 1.95 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
- L 0.78 created, 2.35 conceded against Ferencváros TC
- W 2.56 created, 0.98 conceded against Debreceni VSC
- W 3.05 created, 0.93 conceded against Diósgyőri VTK
- L 2.30 created, 3.67 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
- W 2.22 created, 2.12 conceded against Újpest
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged3 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nyiregyháza Spartacus 2+ goals | 1.80 | +14.2% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.48 | +10.3% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 | +6.6% | Won |
| Nyiregyháza Spartacus to win | 2.30 | +5.4% | Lost |
| Nyiregyháza Spartacus to score | 1.17 | +4.2% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | +3.3% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyiregyháza Spartacus | 45.8% | 39.1% | +6.7 pp | 2.18 |
| Draw | 24.3% | 25.0% | −0.6 pp | 4.11 |
| Paksi FC | 29.8% | 36.0% | −6.1 pp | 3.35 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyiregyháza Spartacus to score | 89.3% | 81.1% | +8.3 pp | 1.12 |
| Nyiregyháza Spartacus not to score | 10.7% | 18.9% | −8.3 pp | 9.37 |
| Paksi FC to score | 84.0% | 79.2% | +4.8 pp | 1.19 |
| Paksi FC not to score | 16.0% | 20.8% | −4.8 pp | 6.26 |
| Both teams to score | 76.1% | 66.3% | +9.9 pp | 1.31 |
| Both teams not to score | 23.9% | 33.7% | −9.9 pp | 4.19 |
| Nyiregyháza Spartacus 2+ goals | 63.4% | 51.5% | +12.0 pp | 1.58 |
| Nyiregyháza Spartacus at most 1 goal | 36.6% | 48.5% | −12.0 pp | 2.73 |
| Paksi FC 2+ goals | 52.1% | 50.0% | +2.1 pp | 1.92 |
| Paksi FC at most 1 goal | 47.9% | 50.0% | −2.1 pp | 2.09 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.8% | 84.2% | +7.6 pp | 1.09 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 8.2% | 15.8% | −7.6 pp | 12.23 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.7% | 63.8% | +10.9 pp | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 25.3% | 36.2% | −10.9 pp | 3.96 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Nyiregyháza Spartacus sample
- 20 matches
- Paksi FC sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 5 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.