Puskás Akadémia 3:1 Budapest Honvéd FC: xG & match report · NB I (Hungary)

Friday, 18/09/2026 at 19:30

Full time

Match report · NB I (Hungary)

Puskás Akadémia Home 1.34 xG

Budapest Honvéd FC Away 0.87 xG

31 The scoreline reflected the chances

Puskás Akadémia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was Puskás Akadémia's attack: 1.34 xG against 2.07 projected (−0.73). Budapest Honvéd FC produced 0.87 xG against 1.54 projected (−0.67).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Puskás Akadémia: 49% What happened
Draw: 25%
Budapest Honvéd FC: 26%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Puskás Akadémia 2.07 1.34 -0.73

Budapest Honvéd FC 1.54 0.87 -0.67

Puskás Akadémia produced 0.73 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Puskás Akadémia Budapest Honvéd FC

Shots: 16; 16
On target: 5; 5
Inside the box: 11; 7
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.05

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Puskás Akadémia

2.36 xG created 1.88 xGA

L 2.17 created, 2.54 conceded against Kisvárda FC
W 3.63 created, 1.70 conceded against MTK Budapest
W 3.67 created, 2.30 conceded against Paksi FC
W 2.58 created, 1.49 conceded against Vasas
L 0.73 created, 1.95 conceded against Ferencváros TC
L 1.38 created, 1.28 conceded against Zalaegerszegi TE

Budapest Honvéd FC

1.41 xG created 1.94 xGA

L 1.80 created, 3.28 conceded against Vasas
W 1.02 created, 0.61 conceded against Zalaegerszegi TE

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged7 won1 lost

Won
Lost
Won
Won
Won
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Puskás Akadémia against Budapest Honvéd FC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.67	+20.2%	Won
Budapest Honvéd FC 2+ goals	2.50	+17.4%	Lost
Puskás Akadémia 2+ goals	1.83	+16.2%	Won
Both teams to score	1.57	+15.7%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.20	+8.7%	Won
Puskás Akadémia to score	1.18	+5.6%	Won
Budapest Honvéd FC to score	1.30	+5.5%	Won
Puskás Akadémia to win	2.15	+5.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Puskás Akadémia	49.0%	43.2%	+5.8 pp	2.04
Draw	24.5%	25.8%	−1.3 pp	4.08
Budapest Honvéd FC	26.4%	31.0%	−4.5 pp	3.78

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Puskás Akadémia to score	89.3%	79.2%	+10.1 pp	1.12
Puskás Akadémia not to score	10.7%	20.8%	−10.1 pp	9.35
Budapest Honvéd FC to score	81.2%	72.3%	+8.8 pp	1.23
Budapest Honvéd FC not to score	18.8%	27.7%	−8.8 pp	5.31
Both teams to score	73.6%	58.9%	+14.8 pp	1.36
Both teams not to score	26.4%	41.1%	−14.8 pp	3.80
Puskás Akadémia 2+ goals	63.4%	50.0%	+13.4 pp	1.58
Puskás Akadémia at most 1 goal	36.6%	50.0%	−13.4 pp	2.73
Budapest Honvéd FC 2+ goals	47.0%	37.5%	+9.5 pp	2.13
Budapest Honvéd FC at most 1 goal	53.0%	62.5%	−9.5 pp	1.89
Over 1.5 goals	90.6%	78.3%	+12.3 pp	1.10
Under 1.5 goals	9.4%	21.7%	−12.3 pp	10.64
Over 2.5 goals	72.1%	56.3%	+15.8 pp	1.39
Under 2.5 goals	27.9%	43.7%	−15.8 pp	3.58

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Puskás Akadémia sample: 20 matches
Budapest Honvéd FC sample: 2 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Budapest Honvéd FC has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.