Vasas 3:2 Nyiregyháza Spartacus: xG & match report · NB I (Hungary)

Friday, 04/09/2026 at 18:30

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Match report · NB I (Hungary)

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Nyiregyháza Spartacus Away

Nyiregyháza Spartacus were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. Vasas won 3–2.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Vasas: 33% What happened
Draw: 25%
Nyiregyháza Spartacus: 42%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Vasas

2.17 xG created 1.86 xGA

W 2.36 created, 0.42 conceded against Zalaegerszegi TE
W 3.28 created, 1.80 conceded against Budapest Honvéd FC
L 1.49 created, 2.58 conceded against Puskás Akadémia
L 1.56 created, 2.64 conceded against Újpest

Nyiregyháza Spartacus

2.67 xG created 1.37 xGA

D 1.81 created, 1.83 conceded against MTK Budapest
D 3.40 created, 1.14 conceded against Kazincbarcikai SC
L 1.87 created, 2.37 conceded against ETO FC Győr
W 2.86 created, 0.79 conceded against Kisvárda FC
L 2.09 created, 1.40 conceded against MTK Budapest
D 3.96 created, 0.68 conceded against Paksi FC

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged3 won1 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Vasas against Nyiregyháza Spartacus before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Nyiregyháza Spartacus to win	3.20	+34.8%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.75	+30.6%	Won
Both teams to score	1.57	+20.0%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+12.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Vasas	33.2%	44.0%	−10.8 pp	3.01
Draw	24.7%	27.2%	−2.5 pp	4.06
Nyiregyháza Spartacus	42.1%	28.9%	+13.3 pp	2.37

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	76.4%	58.9%	+17.5 pp	1.31
Both teams not to score	23.6%	41.1%	−17.5 pp	4.24
Over 1.5 goals	91.8%	76.6%	+15.2 pp	1.09
Under 1.5 goals	8.2%	23.4%	−15.2 pp	12.16
Over 2.5 goals	74.6%	53.9%	+20.7 pp	1.34
Under 2.5 goals	25.4%	46.1%	−20.7 pp	3.94

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Vasas sample: 4 matches
Nyiregyháza Spartacus sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Vasas has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.