Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 18:00
20d 16h to kick-offZalaegerszegi TE – Kisvárda FC
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Zalaegerszegi TE
- 47%
- Draw
- 28%
- Kisvárda FC
- 25%
| Zalaegerszegi TE | Draw | Kisvárda FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.14 | 3.54 | 4.00 |
- Total goals
- 2.89
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Zalaegerszegi TE
47% Zalaegerszegi TE to win
- Attack
- 11th vs 10th
- Zalaegerszegi TE attack v Kisvárda FC defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 12th
- Zalaegerszegi TE defence v Kisvárda FC attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.61 vs -0.89
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.68 – 1.22
- Zalaegerszegi TE v Kisvárda FC
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Zalaegerszegi TE | Kisvárda FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.21 · 12th | (better) 1.39 · 10th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.79 · 7th | 2.28 · 10th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.58 · 9th | -0.89 · 11th |
| xPts / match | 0.96 · 11th | (better) 0.98 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.61 | -0.89 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Zalaegerszegi TE clean sheet
- 27%
- Zalaegerszegi TE 2+ goals
- 52%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.9%
- 2:1
- 11.1%
- 1:2
- 7.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Zalaegerszegi TE sample
- 20 matches
- Kisvárda FC sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Zalaegerszegi TE
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Kisvárda FC
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.