FC Košice 3:0 Dukla Banská Bystrica: xG & match report · Niké Liga (Slovakia)

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 17:00

Full time

Match report · Niké Liga (Slovakia)

FC Košice Home 2.41 xG

Dukla Banská Bystrica Away 0.40 xG

30 The scoreline reflected the chances

FC Košice were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was Dukla Banská Bystrica's attack: 0.40 xG against 1.52 projected (−1.12). FC Košice produced 2.41 xG against 2.12 projected (+0.29).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Košice: 51% What happened
Draw: 24%
Dukla Banská Bystrica: 25%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Košice 2.12 2.41 +0.29

Dukla Banská Bystrica 1.52 0.40 -1.12

Dukla Banská Bystrica produced 1.12 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Košice Dukla Banská Bystrica

Shots: 12; 5
On target: 7; 3
Inside the box: 6; 3
xG per shot: 0.20; 0.08

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Košice

1.64 xG created 2.59 xGA

L 1.29 created, 2.13 conceded against MFK Skalica
W 2.16 created, 2.30 conceded against KFC Komárno
L 2.04 created, 1.57 conceded against AS Trenčín
W 0.93 created, 2.43 conceded against MFK Skalica
L 0.92 created, 4.66 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
D 2.51 created, 2.44 conceded against FK Železiarne Podbrezová

Dukla Banská Bystrica

0.79 xG created 2.48 xGA

L 1.08 created, 1.66 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
L 0.56 created, 3.82 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
W 0.74 created, 1.95 conceded against MFK Ružomberok

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged2 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Košice against Dukla Banská Bystrica before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Dukla Banská Bystrica to win	5.50	+38.5%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.53	+13.2%	Lost
Draw	4.33	+4.5%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.40	+2.0%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.11	+1.0%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Košice	50.7%	61.3%	−10.5 pp	1.97
Draw	24.1%	21.7%	+2.4 pp	4.15
Dukla Banská Bystrica	25.2%	17.1%	+8.1 pp	3.97

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	73.9%	60.8%	+13.1 pp	1.35
Both teams not to score	26.1%	39.2%	−13.1 pp	3.82
Over 1.5 goals	91.0%	84.4%	+6.6 pp	1.10
Under 1.5 goals	9.0%	15.6%	−6.6 pp	11.05
Over 2.5 goals	72.8%	66.3%	+6.6 pp	1.37
Under 2.5 goals	27.2%	33.7%	−6.6 pp	3.68

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Košice sample: 20 matches
Dukla Banská Bystrica sample: 3 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Dukla Banská Bystrica has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.