Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 19:00
Full timeMFK Ružomberok 1:1 FC Spartak Trnava
FC Spartak Trnava were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. It finished 1–1.
The model against the result
- MFK Ružomberok
- 27%
- Draw
- 27% What happened
- FC Spartak Trnava
- 46%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.55 xG created 1.64 xGA
- L 0.42 created, 0.67 conceded against MFK Skalica
- D 2.41 created, 1.21 conceded against DAC 1904
- L 1.55 created, 1.95 conceded against MFK Skalica
- L 1.11 created, 2.52 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- L 1.95 created, 0.74 conceded against Dukla Banská Bystrica
- L 1.87 created, 2.78 conceded against AS Trenčín
2.37 xG created 1.06 xGA
- W 2.62 created, 1.10 conceded against MŠK Žilina
- L 1.31 created, 1.43 conceded against DAC 1904
- W 1.92 created, 1.59 conceded against KFC Komárno
- W 3.82 created, 0.56 conceded against Dukla Banská Bystrica
- W 2.73 created, 0.26 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- W 1.82 created, 1.44 conceded against AS Trenčín
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | +10.5% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | +7.4% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | +3.9% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MFK Ružomberok | 26.7% | 27.5% | −0.9 pp | 3.75 |
| Draw | 27.3% | 26.8% | +0.6 pp | 3.66 |
| FC Spartak Trnava | 46.0% | 45.7% | +0.3 pp | 2.17 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 66.3% | 55.7% | +10.5 pp | 1.51 |
| Both teams not to score | 33.7% | 44.3% | −10.5 pp | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.0% | 76.6% | +8.4 pp | 1.18 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.0% | 23.4% | −8.4 pp | 6.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.3% | 53.9% | +7.4 pp | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.7% | 46.1% | −7.4 pp | 2.59 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- MFK Ružomberok sample
- 20 matches
- FC Spartak Trnava sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 4 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 4 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.