Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 18:00
Full timeMŠK Žilina 3:1 FK Železiarne Podbrezová
MŠK Žilina were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 3–1.
The model against the result
- MŠK Žilina
- 48% What happened
- Draw
- 27%
- FK Železiarne Podbrezová
- 26%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.58 xG created 1.52 xGA
- W 2.53 created, 1.32 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- L 1.10 created, 2.62 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
- L 0.30 created, 1.63 conceded against FK Železiarne Podbrezová
- W 0.76 created, 1.42 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- L 3.25 created, 1.08 conceded against MFK Skalica
- W 1.54 created, 1.04 conceded against KFC Komárno
1.47 xG created 1.99 xGA
- L 1.10 created, 1.95 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- W 1.63 created, 0.30 conceded against MŠK Žilina
- L 0.98 created, 3.14 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- W 2.16 created, 1.80 conceded against AS Trenčín
- L 0.49 created, 2.23 conceded against DAC 1904
- D 2.44 created, 2.51 conceded against FC Košice
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged2 won0 lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | +0.9% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | +0.3% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MŠK Žilina | 47.9% | 50.3% | −2.5 pp | 2.09 |
| Draw | 26.5% | 25.2% | +1.4 pp | 3.77 |
| FK Železiarne Podbrezová | 25.6% | 24.5% | +1.1 pp | 3.91 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 67.8% | 66.3% | +1.5 pp | 1.47 |
| Both teams not to score | 32.2% | 33.7% | −1.5 pp | 3.11 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.4% | 79.4% | +7.0 pp | 1.16 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13.6% | 20.6% | −7.0 pp | 7.37 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.9% | 59.9% | +3.9 pp | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.1% | 40.1% | −3.9 pp | 2.77 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- MŠK Žilina sample
- 20 matches
- FK Železiarne Podbrezová sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.