Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 17:00
Full timeŠK Slovan Bratislava 1:2 MFK Zemplín Michalovce
ŠK Slovan Bratislava were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 56%. MFK Zemplín Michalovce won 2–1. The biggest difference was ŠK Slovan Bratislava's attack: 2.45 xG against 1.84 projected (+0.61). MFK Zemplín Michalovce produced 0.46 xG against 1.03 projected (−0.57).
The model against the result
- ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- 56%
- Draw
- 26%
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- 18% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
ŠK Slovan Bratislava produced 0.61 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 20
- 6
- On target
- 3
- 4
- Inside the box
- 14
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.08
Recent form
2.42 xG created 1.17 xGA
- W 1.95 created, 1.10 conceded against FK Železiarne Podbrezová
- L 0.56 created, 1.85 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- W 1.66 created, 1.08 conceded against Dukla Banská Bystrica
- W 3.14 created, 0.98 conceded against FK Železiarne Podbrezová
- W 2.52 created, 1.11 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
- W 4.66 created, 0.92 conceded against FC Košice
1.14 xG created 1.57 xGA
- L 1.32 created, 2.53 conceded against MŠK Žilina
- W 1.32 created, 1.61 conceded against DAC 1904
- W 1.85 created, 0.56 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- L 1.42 created, 0.76 conceded against MŠK Žilina
- D 0.65 created, 1.21 conceded against KFC Komárno
- L 0.26 created, 2.73 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged5 won2 lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| MFK Zemplín Michalovce to win | 9.00 | +53.0% | Won |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava at most 1 goal | 3.40 | +39.7% | Won |
| Draw | 5.50 | +31.5% | Lost |
| MFK Zemplín Michalovce 2+ goals | 3.75 | +10.5% | Won |
| MFK Zemplín Michalovce to score | 1.57 | +8.6% | Won |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava not to score | 8.50 | +8.2% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | +3.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava | 55.7% | 72.4% | −16.7 pp | 1.80 |
| Draw | 26.3% | 17.1% | +9.2 pp | 3.80 |
| MFK Zemplín Michalovce | 18.0% | 10.5% | +7.5 pp | 5.56 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava to score | 86.5% | 89.0% | −2.5 pp | 1.16 |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava not to score | 13.5% | 11.0% | +2.5 pp | 7.39 |
| MFK Zemplín Michalovce to score | 67.3% | 58.9% | +8.4 pp | 1.49 |
| MFK Zemplín Michalovce not to score | 32.7% | 41.1% | −8.4 pp | 3.05 |
| Both teams to score | 59.7% | 53.7% | +6.0 pp | 1.68 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.3% | 46.3% | −6.0 pp | 2.48 |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava 2+ goals | 57.0% | 72.3% | −15.3 pp | 1.75 |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava at most 1 goal | 43.0% | 27.7% | +15.3 pp | 2.33 |
| MFK Zemplín Michalovce 2+ goals | 27.6% | 25.0% | +2.6 pp | 3.62 |
| MFK Zemplín Michalovce at most 1 goal | 72.4% | 75.0% | −2.6 pp | 1.38 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- ŠK Slovan Bratislava sample
- 20 matches
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.