Arda Kardzhali 2:3 Botev Plovdiv: xG & match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Friday, 04/09/2026 at 20:15

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Match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Arda Kardzhali Home

Botev Plovdiv Away

Arda Kardzhali were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. Botev Plovdiv won 3–2.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Arda Kardzhali: 37%
Draw: 32%
Botev Plovdiv: 31% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Arda Kardzhali

1.95 xG created 0.81 xGA

W 3.10 created, 0.50 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
D 0.66 created, 1.39 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
W 2.57 created, 0.00 conceded against Slavia Sofia
L 1.84 created, 1.05 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
W 2.59 created, 1.20 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse
W 0.91 created, 0.71 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia

Botev Plovdiv

1.71 xG created 1.02 xGA

D 2.29 created, 0.53 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
L 2.39 created, 1.54 conceded against CSKA Sofia
W 2.29 created, 0.25 conceded against Cherno More Varna
L 0.81 created, 2.58 conceded against Ludogorets
L 0.77 created, 0.54 conceded against Botev Vratsa
L 1.72 created, 0.66 conceded against Levski Sofia

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Arda Kardzhali: 2 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged3 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Arda Kardzhali against Botev Plovdiv before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Botev Plovdiv to win	3.50	+8.5%	Won
Both teams to score	1.91	+7.3%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.36	+2.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Arda Kardzhali	37.2%	42.2%	−5.0 pp	2.68
Draw	31.8%	30.6%	+1.1 pp	3.15
Botev Plovdiv	31.0%	27.1%	+3.8 pp	3.23

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	56.2%	48.5%	+7.7 pp	1.78
Both teams not to score	43.8%	51.5%	−7.7 pp	2.28
Over 1.5 goals	75.1%	68.7%	+6.3 pp	1.33
Under 1.5 goals	24.9%	31.3%	−6.3 pp	4.01
Over 2.5 goals	46.0%	43.7%	+2.3 pp	2.17
Under 2.5 goals	54.0%	56.3%	−2.3 pp	1.85

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Arda Kardzhali sample: 20 matches
Botev Plovdiv sample: 20 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.