xgEdge

Expected goals

Beroe Stara Zagora expected goals (xG) 2025/2026

Parva Liga (Bulgaria) · after 35 matches · updated 1 Oct

Beroe Stara Zagora's attacking and defensive expected goals in Parva Liga (Bulgaria) 2025/2026, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Beroe Stara Zagora xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.09 xG per match
#11/16
Attack (xG per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Ludogorets 1.91
#2 Levski Sofia 1.87
#3 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.57
#4 CSKA Sofia 1.50
#5 Lokomotiv Sofia 1.35
#6 Botev Plovdiv 1.31
#7 Cherno More Varna 1.28
#8 Arda Kardzhali 1.26
#9 Slavia Sofia 1.16
#10 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.15
#11 Beroe Stara Zagora 1.09
#12 FK Septemvri Sofia 1.08
#13 Botev Vratsa 1.06
#14 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich 1.04
#15 PFK Montana 1921 0.97
#16 FK Spartak Varna 0.90
League avg
1.28
Total
38.11 35 matches
Defence
1.67 xGA per match
#14/16
Defence (xGA per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Levski Sofia 0.70
#2 Ludogorets 0.73
#3 Arda Kardzhali 0.96
#4 CSKA Sofia 0.96
#5 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.09
#6 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.16
#7 Botev Vratsa 1.22
#8 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich 1.27
#9 Lokomotiv Sofia 1.30
#10 Cherno More Varna 1.34
#11 Botev Plovdiv 1.39
#12 PFK Montana 1921 1.46
#13 Slavia Sofia 1.56
#14 Beroe Stara Zagora 1.67
#15 FK Septemvri Sofia 1.79
#16 FK Spartak Varna 1.79
League avg
1.28
Total
58.49 35 matches
xG difference
-0.58 xGD per match
#14/16
xG difference (xGD per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Ludogorets +1.19
#2 Levski Sofia +1.17
#3 CSKA Sofia +0.54
#4 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia +0.48
#5 Arda Kardzhali +0.30
#6 Lokomotiv Sofia +0.06
#7 Lokomotiv Plovdiv -0.01
#8 Cherno More Varna -0.06
#9 Botev Plovdiv -0.08
#10 Botev Vratsa -0.16
#11 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich -0.24
#12 Slavia Sofia -0.41
#13 PFK Montana 1921 -0.48
#14 Beroe Stara Zagora -0.58
#15 FK Septemvri Sofia -0.71
#16 FK Spartak Varna -0.89
League avg
0.00
Total
-20.38 35 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.02 xPts per match
#14/16
Expected points (xPts per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Ludogorets 2.19
#2 Levski Sofia 2.12
#3 CSKA Sofia 1.71
#4 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.69
#5 Arda Kardzhali 1.56
#6 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.41
#7 Lokomotiv Sofia 1.41
#8 Botev Plovdiv 1.30
#9 Botev Vratsa 1.29
#10 Cherno More Varna 1.24
#11 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich 1.19
#12 Slavia Sofia 1.12
#13 PFK Montana 1921 1.07
#14 Beroe Stara Zagora 1.02
#15 FK Septemvri Sofia 0.94
#16 FK Spartak Varna 0.84
League avg
1.38
Total
35.86 vs 34 actual pts

Expected goals here are summed over 35 of 36 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

Beroe Stara Zagora's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Parva Liga (Bulgaria). They rank #14 for xG difference at -0.58 per match, from low shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 27 goals are 11.11 below 38.11 xG, while 34 points are 1.86 below 35.86 xPts — both over the 35 matches with xG.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.64 xG from penalties
27 38.11 -11.11 scored 11.11 fewer than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
47 58.49 -11.49 conceded 11.49 fewer than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
34 35.86 -1.86 1.86 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Beroe Stara Zagora are 11.11 goals below their xG after 35 matches. The gap was widest at -13.45, against FK Spartak Varna on Fri 24/04.

Goals
27
xG
38.11
Gap
-11.11
Mon 21/07 Sat 26/07 Mon 04/08 Mon 11/08 Sat 16/08 Sun 31/08 Fri 12/09 Sun 21/09 Mon 29/09 Sat 04/10 Mon 20/10 Sun 26/10 Mon 03/11 Sat 08/11 Fri 21/11 Sat 29/11 Wed 03/12 Sun 07/12 Fri 19/12 Sun 08/02 Sun 15/02 Sun 22/02 Sat 28/02 Tue 03/03 Sun 08/03 Sun 15/03 Sun 22/03 Sat 04/04 Mon 13/04 Fri 24/04 Sat 02/05 Tue 05/05 Sun 10/05 Thu 14/05 Mon 18/05 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 -0.70 -0.59 -2.10 -2.95 -3.28 -2.97 -2.03 -2.34 -2.79 -2.43 -1.69 -1.40 -0.89 -1.65 -2.63 -2.20 -2.16 -3.93 -4.07 -4.71 -4.25 -4.55 -5.14 -7.98 -8.92 -9.51 -10.23 -11.37 -12.30 -13.45 -11.81 -10.83 -10.31 -10.59 -11.11 -0.70 +0.11 -1.51 -0.85 -0.33 +0.31 +0.94 -0.31 -0.45 +0.36 +0.74 +0.29 +0.51 -0.76 -0.98 +0.43 +0.04 -1.77 -0.14 -0.64 +0.46 -0.30 -0.59 -2.84 -0.94 -0.59 -0.72 -1.14 -0.93 -1.15 +1.64 +0.98 +0.52 -0.28 -0.52 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Beroe Stara Zagora: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Mon 21/07 FK Spartak Varna 0 0.70 -0.70 -0.70
Sat 26/07 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1 0.89 +0.11 -0.59
Mon 04/08 Cherno More Varna 0 1.51 -1.51 -2.10
Mon 11/08 FK Septemvri Sofia 3 3.85 -0.85 -2.95
Sat 16/08 Botev Plovdiv 1 1.33 -0.33 -3.28
Sun 31/08 Arda Kardzhali 2 1.69 +0.31 -2.97
Fri 12/09 Botev Vratsa 2 1.06 +0.94 -2.03
Sun 21/09 Slavia Sofia 0 0.31 -0.31 -2.34
Mon 29/09 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich 1 1.45 -0.45 -2.79
Sat 04/10 Levski Sofia 1 0.64 +0.36 -2.43
Mon 20/10 PFK Montana 1921 1 0.26 +0.74 -1.69
Sun 26/10 CSKA Sofia 1 0.71 +0.29 -1.40
Mon 03/11 Lokomotiv Sofia 1 0.49 +0.51 -0.89
Sat 08/11 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0 0.76 -0.76 -1.65
Fri 21/11 FK Spartak Varna 0 0.98 -0.98 -2.63
Sat 29/11 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1 0.57 +0.43 -2.20
Wed 03/12 Cherno More Varna 1 0.96 +0.04 -2.16
Sun 07/12 FK Septemvri Sofia 0 1.77 -1.77 -3.93
Fri 19/12 Ludogorets 0 0.14 -0.14 -4.07
Sun 08/02 Botev Plovdiv 0 0.64 -0.64 -4.71
Sun 15/02 Ludogorets 1 0.54 +0.46 -4.25
Sun 22/02 Arda Kardzhali 0 0.30 -0.30 -4.55
Sat 28/02 Botev Vratsa 0 0.59 -0.59 -5.14
Tue 03/03 Slavia Sofia 0 2.84 -2.84 -7.98
Sun 08/03 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich 0 0.94 -0.94 -8.92
Sun 15/03 Levski Sofia 0 0.59 -0.59 -9.51
Sun 22/03 PFK Montana 1921 1 1.72 -0.72 -10.23
Sat 04/04 CSKA Sofia 0 1.14 -1.14 -11.37
Mon 13/04 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0 0.93 -0.93 -12.30
Fri 24/04 FK Spartak Varna 2 3.15 -1.15 -13.45
Sat 02/05 Slavia Sofia 3 1.36 +1.64 -11.81
Tue 05/05 PFK Montana 1921 2 1.02 +0.98 -10.83
Sun 10/05 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich 1 0.48 +0.52 -10.31
Thu 14/05 Lokomotiv Sofia 1 1.28 -0.28 -10.59
Mon 18/05 FK Septemvri Sofia 0 0.52 -0.52 -11.11

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Beroe Stara Zagora xG trend

Current form +0.19 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 12 of 35 matches. The worst was against Levski Sofia on Sat 04/10 (-3.45).

npxG · last 6
1.30
npxGA · last 6
1.11
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +0.18 Mon 21/07 -1.81 Sat 26/07 +0.15 Mon 04/08 +0.97 Mon 11/08 +0.46 Sat 16/08 -1.25 Sun 31/08 -0.31 Fri 12/09 -0.43 Sun 21/09 +0.30 Mon 29/09 -3.45 Sat 04/10 -1.32 Mon 20/10 -1.66 Sun 26/10 -0.89 Mon 03/11 -1.11 Sat 08/11 +0.20 Fri 21/11 -3.30 Sat 29/11 -0.83 Wed 03/12 +0.63 Sun 07/12 -1.66 Fri 19/12 -0.68 Sun 08/02 -2.82 Sun 15/02 -0.67 Sun 22/02 -0.02 Sat 28/02 +1.08 Tue 03/03 -1.51 Sun 08/03 -0.07 Sun 15/03 +0.08 Sun 22/03 -0.67 Sat 04/04 +0.27 Mon 13/04 +2.68 Fri 24/04 +0.19 Sat 02/05 -0.22 Tue 05/05 -0.42 Sun 10/05 -0.42 Thu 14/05 -0.68 Mon 18/05 -0.54 season avg
Beroe Stara Zagora: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Mon 21/07 FK Spartak Varna 0.70 0.52 +0.18 +0.18
Sat 26/07 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 0.89 2.70 -1.81 -0.82
Mon 04/08 Cherno More Varna 1.51 1.36 +0.15 -0.49
Mon 11/08 FK Septemvri Sofia 3.95 2.98 +0.97 -0.13
Sat 16/08 Botev Plovdiv 1.17 0.71 +0.46 -0.01
Sun 31/08 Arda Kardzhali 1.69 2.94 -1.25 -0.22
Fri 12/09 Botev Vratsa 1.06 1.37 -0.31 -0.23
Sun 21/09 Slavia Sofia 0.32 0.75 -0.43 -0.25
Mon 29/09 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich 0.68 0.38 +0.30 -0.19
Sat 04/10 Levski Sofia 0.64 4.09 -3.45 -0.52
Mon 20/10 PFK Montana 1921 0.26 1.58 -1.32 -0.59
Sun 26/10 CSKA Sofia 0.71 2.37 -1.66 -0.68
Mon 03/11 Lokomotiv Sofia 0.65 1.54 -0.89 -0.70
Sat 08/11 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.76 1.87 -1.11 -0.73
Fri 21/11 FK Spartak Varna 0.98 0.78 +0.20 -0.66
Sat 29/11 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 0.57 3.87 -3.30 -0.83
Wed 03/12 Cherno More Varna 0.86 1.69 -0.83 -0.83
Sun 07/12 FK Septemvri Sofia 1.77 1.14 +0.63 -0.75
Fri 19/12 Ludogorets 0.06 1.72 -1.66 -0.80
Sun 08/02 Botev Plovdiv 0.64 1.32 -0.68 -0.79
Sun 15/02 Ludogorets 0.54 3.36 -2.82 -0.89
Sun 22/02 Arda Kardzhali 0.30 0.97 -0.67 -0.88
Sat 28/02 Botev Vratsa 0.59 0.61 -0.02 -0.84
Tue 03/03 Slavia Sofia 2.84 1.76 +1.08 -0.76
Sun 08/03 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich 0.94 2.45 -1.51 -0.79
Sun 15/03 Levski Sofia 0.59 0.66 -0.07 -0.76
Sun 22/03 PFK Montana 1921 0.96 0.88 +0.08 -0.73
Sat 04/04 CSKA Sofia 1.14 1.81 -0.67 -0.73
Mon 13/04 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.93 0.66 +0.27 -0.69
Fri 24/04 FK Spartak Varna 3.16 0.48 +2.68 -0.58
Sat 02/05 Slavia Sofia 1.36 1.17 +0.19 -0.56
Tue 05/05 PFK Montana 1921 1.02 1.24 -0.22 -0.55
Sun 10/05 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich 0.48 0.90 -0.42 -0.54
Thu 14/05 Lokomotiv Sofia 1.28 1.70 -0.42 -0.54
Mon 18/05 FK Septemvri Sofia 0.47 1.15 -0.68 -0.54

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.04 npxG and 1.59 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 11 hardest of 16 in Parva Liga (Bulgaria)
−0.04 xG vs league average
Over 36 league matches
Last 5
number 9 hardest of 15 in Parva Liga (Bulgaria)
−0.20 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.04 xG vs league average · over 36 matches · number 11 hardest of 16

  1. Botev Vratsa Away −0.14
  2. FK Septemvri Sofia Home −0.31
  3. Lokomotiv Sofia Away −0.07
  4. FK Dobrudzha Dobrich Away −0.06
  5. PFK Montana 1921 Home −0.42
  6. Slavia Sofia Home −0.59
  7. FK Spartak Varna Away −0.63
  8. Lokomotiv Plovdiv Home +0.02
  9. CSKA Sofia Home +0.54
  10. PFK Montana 1921 Away −0.42
  11. Levski Sofia Home +0.69
  12. FK Dobrudzha Dobrich Away −0.06
  13. Slavia Sofia Home −0.59
  14. Botev Vratsa Away −0.14
  15. Arda Kardzhali Home +0.17
  16. Ludogorets Away +0.85
  17. Botev Plovdiv Away +0.23
  18. Ludogorets Home +0.85
  19. FK Septemvri Sofia Home −0.31
  20. Cherno More Varna Home −0.20
  21. FC CSKA 1948 Sofia Away +0.36
  22. FK Spartak Varna Home −0.63
  23. Lokomotiv Plovdiv Away +0.02
  24. Lokomotiv Sofia Home −0.07
  25. CSKA Sofia Away +0.54
  26. PFK Montana 1921 Home −0.42
  27. Levski Sofia Away +0.69
  28. FK Dobrudzha Dobrich Home −0.06
  29. Slavia Sofia Away −0.59
  30. Botev Vratsa Home −0.14
  31. Arda Kardzhali Away +0.17
  32. Botev Plovdiv Home +0.23
  33. FK Septemvri Sofia Away −0.31
  34. Cherno More Varna Away −0.20
  35. FC CSKA 1948 Sofia Home +0.36
  36. FK Spartak Varna Away −0.63

Last 5

−0.20 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 9 hardest of 15

  1. Botev Vratsa Away −0.14
  2. FK Septemvri Sofia Home −0.31
  3. Lokomotiv Sofia Away −0.07
  4. FK Dobrudzha Dobrich Away −0.06
  5. PFK Montana 1921 Home −0.42

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Beroe Stara Zagora shots and chance quality

Low volume, average quality. Beroe Stara Zagora take 9.5 shots a match (league 11.4) at 0.11 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #12 in Parva Liga (Bulgaria) for volume and #6 for quality. 54% of their shots come from inside the box (league 56%).

Attack

Shot volume
9.5 shots per match
#12/16
Shot volume (shots per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Ludogorets 15.9
#2 CSKA Sofia 15.4
#3 Levski Sofia 15.2
#4 Botev Plovdiv 13.0
#5 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 11.7
#6 Slavia Sofia 11.5
#7 Arda Kardzhali 11.0
#8 Cherno More Varna 10.9
#9 Lokomotiv Sofia 10.8
#10 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 10.5
#11 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich 10.4
#12 Beroe Stara Zagora 9.5
#13 Botev Vratsa 9.4
#14 PFK Montana 1921 9.1
=15 FK Septemvri Sofia 8.9
=15 FK Spartak Varna 8.9
League avg
11.4
Total
332 shots from 35 matches
Chance quality
0.11 npxG per shot
#6/16
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 0.12
#2 Lokomotiv Sofia 0.12
#3 Arda Kardzhali 0.11
#4 Levski Sofia 0.11
#5 FK Septemvri Sofia 0.11
#6 Beroe Stara Zagora 0.11
#7 Ludogorets 0.11
#8 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.11
#9 Cherno More Varna 0.11
#10 Botev Vratsa 0.11
#11 PFK Montana 1921 0.10
#12 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich 0.10
#13 Botev Plovdiv 0.09
#14 Slavia Sofia 0.09
#15 CSKA Sofia 0.09
#16 FK Spartak Varna 0.09
League avg
0.10
Total
36.47 npxG from 332 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
16.1 shots per match
#16/16
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Levski Sofia 7.2
#2 Ludogorets 7.6
#3 CSKA Sofia 8.3
#4 Arda Kardzhali 9.5
#5 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich 9.5
#6 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 10.6
#7 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 10.9
#8 Botev Vratsa 11.1
#9 Cherno More Varna 11.4
#10 PFK Montana 1921 11.4
#11 Botev Plovdiv 11.8
#12 Lokomotiv Sofia 12.1
#13 FK Septemvri Sofia 13.4
#14 Slavia Sofia 14.8
#15 FK Spartak Varna 15.6
#16 Beroe Stara Zagora 16.1
League avg
11.4
Total
562 shots allowed from 35 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#7/16
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 0.09
#2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.09
#3 Levski Sofia 0.10
#4 Ludogorets 0.10
#5 Arda Kardzhali 0.10
#6 Lokomotiv Sofia 0.10
#7 Beroe Stara Zagora 0.10
#8 Slavia Sofia 0.10
#9 Botev Plovdiv 0.10
#10 Botev Vratsa 0.10
#11 CSKA Sofia 0.11
#12 FK Spartak Varna 0.11
#13 Cherno More Varna 0.11
#14 PFK Montana 1921 0.12
#15 FK Septemvri Sofia 0.12
#16 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich 0.12
League avg
0.10
Total
55.48 npxGA from 562 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

54% inside the box

League avg 56%

From 180 of 332 shots over 35 matches

Shots allowed, location

54% allowed inside the box

League avg 56%

From 306 of 562 shots allowed over 35 matches

How the shot figures are made →

Beroe Stara Zagora home and away xG

Beroe Stara Zagora per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 18 18 17 with xG
xG / match 1.00 1.18
xGA / match 1.32 2.04
xGD / match -0.32 -0.86
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.12 0.92

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Beroe Stara Zagora match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Last 10

Matches
10 9 with xG
xG / match
1.29
xGA / match
1.19
xGD / match
+0.10
Points
15 of 30
  1. Fri 22/05 Botev Vratsa A
  2. Mon 18/05 FK Septemvri Sofia H xG 0.52 xGA 1.15 xGD -0.63
  3. Thu 14/05 Lokomotiv Sofia A xG 1.28 xGA 1.70 xGD -0.42
  4. Sun 10/05 FK Dobrudzha Dobrich A xG 0.48 xGA 0.90 xGD -0.42
  5. Tue 05/05 PFK Montana 1921 H xG 1.02 xGA 1.23 xGD -0.21
  6. Sat 02/05 Slavia Sofia H xG 1.36 xGA 1.17 xGD +0.19
  7. Fri 24/04 FK Spartak Varna A Best underlying xG 3.15 xGA 0.48 xGD +2.67
  8. Mon 13/04 Lokomotiv Plovdiv H xG 0.93 xGA 0.66 xGD +0.27
  9. Sat 04/04 CSKA Sofia H Weakest underlying xG 1.14 xGA 2.56 P xGD -1.42
  10. Sun 22/03 PFK Montana 1921 A xG 1.72 P xGA 0.88 xGD +0.84

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.15. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Beroe Stara Zagora in Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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